Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gabe Stengel

Rogo’s model-era progression—from o1 Pro’s reliable search to Opus 4.5 handling junior finance work—supports a two-year race to redesign investment firms, not wait for better models.Its wedge is private-market dealmaking, where data rooms, DDQs, CRM and LP reporting still lack infrastructure, while high-value ideas can justify extreme token spend.The watchpoints are compaction, standardization, and whether incumbents move aggressively enough.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Eric Vishria

AI is likely to produce an oligopoly plus $100B specialists, not a single winner-take-all lab, while Fireworks shows inference’s hidden moat: roughly 5X speed and multiple-X throughput on the same models and NVIDIA hardware.SaaS incumbents now face “Get to AI or be worth three times revenue,” as migration becomes easier and cost, iteration speed, and transportability matter more, with energy—especially China’s roughly tenfold buildout next year—the key constraint.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Mitchell Green

Mitchell Green sees public software as a potential risk-adjusted opportunity because distribution, customer success, and switching costs still protect incumbents such as Workday despite AI disruption fears.He expects the AI capex bubble to end badly as models commoditize, with the eventual drawdown creating an entry point, while Lead Edge’s sell discipline and 70% special-situations allocation offer nearer-term liquidity advantages.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Dan Sundheim

Dan Sundheim sees a moment-in-time opportunity in late-stage privates, where some of the largest companies by market cap remain private, and AI-lab investments inform public-equity analysis.The LLM debate now centers on unprecedented capital intensity: four or five models may endure, while hyperscalers could grow faster yet worsen as labs potentially insource compute in 5-10 years; software, scaling laws, and training returns remain watchpoints.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Josh Kushner

Thrive’s concentrated bets in Stripe at $50B and OpenAI reflect a long-term conviction that value will concentrate in fewer, much larger private and public companies.Its three-bucket strategy spans AI-native leaders, enabling infrastructure and permanent-capital Holdings, while the unresolved risk is that AI’s paradigm shift will also produce substantial capital loss.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Ben Horowitz

Ben Horowitz expects AI’s economic impact within 12–24 months because adoption needs no new infrastructure, while lower energy prices, less regulation, and a friendlier tax code strengthen the backdrop.AI-native companies such as Cursor can reach over $1B in revenue rapidly even as Salesforce and SAP remain difficult targets, but policy remains the tail risk and private markets must support companies toward a roughly $1B IPO threshold.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Henry Ellenbogen

Ellenbogen’s research found that about 40 stocks—roughly 1% of the market—compound at 20% annually over rolling 10-year periods, with 80% starting as small caps.Durable concentrates on these outliers as machines dominate short-cycle flows, while AI reshapes knowledge labor and robotics could deflate costs 15–20% annually, making company adaptation and drawdowns key watchpoints.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Martín Escobari

GA is testing AI across 200+ portfolio companies and 500 projects this year, then deploying capital behind proven ROI; Anthropic’s coding revenue rose from $200M to over $4B in 12 months.With US equities at 26x earnings for 4% forecast growth versus 14x in Europe, 9x in Brazil, and 10x in Mexico, Escobari sees diversification potential, while an AI spending hangover remains unresolved.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Ari Emanuel

Ari Emanuel’s anti-AI bet is live events, supported by longer leisure windows and demand for finite, status-rich experiences across UFC, WWE, festivals, and premium hospitality.His $4.2B UFC purchase at roughly 20x nearly broke him before ESPN rights and COVID’s Fight Island proved the thesis, while a Paramount boxing league and rising sports-asset prices offer catalysts.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Luca Ferrari

Bending Spoons’ strategy is to buy digital businesses and operate them forever, applying a shared technology and talent platform to turn overlooked assets into compounding growth.The conversation examines why one-to-N execution can beat zero-to-one invention, how disciplined acquisition and organization design support that model, and why AI may strengthen rather than undermine it.