Ben Thompson

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

Groq’s compiler-first, SRAM-based architecture delivers extremely fast inference but only 256 megabytes of memory per chip, creating a sharp trade-off between latency-sensitive applications and context-intensive workloads.Nvidia’s licensing and hiring arrangement could turn that niche into a software- and supply-chain-enabled platform, though the non-acquisition structure also highlights an antitrust regime that may make consequential deals easier to avoid reviewing.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

Nvidia’s $46.7 billion July-quarter sales and $54 billion Q3 guide cannot reveal underlying AI demand while GPU supply remains constrained, while selling H20s into China could prevent a domestic CUDA replacement from spreading globally and weakening Nvidia’s moat.The US 10% Intel stake preserves foundry knowledge that cannot be rebuilt quickly, but dilution and governance risks remain, while rare earths and semiconductor controls show the unresolved tension between economically rational globalization and national-security resilience.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

Blanket tariffs risk raising input costs and weakening US manufacturers, while disorderly Treasury moves could trigger margin calls, basis-trade unwinds and a credit freeze.China’s modular manufacturing ecosystem compounds expertise through shared demand, making full onshoring unviable; targeted schedules and guaranteed purchases could build trusted alternatives, but Taiwan decoupling may increase conflict risk.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

Ben Thompson recommends lifting restrictions on finished chips while sharply tightening controls on semiconductor equipment, aiming to preserve another 10 to 15 years of shared dependence on TSMC and Taiwan.The tradeoff is explicit: China could obtain AI systems equal to or better than America’s, while stricter equipment controls could eventually erode Western manufacturing leadership and still fail to change Xi Jinping’s Taiwan calculus.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

DeepSeek is Moneyball for AI: its $6 million V3 figure covered one final run, while mixture-of-experts and low-level optimization delivered efficiency breakthroughs without surpassing the US frontier.Cheaper reasoning models may manufacture training data and expand aggregate compute demand, preserving opportunities in power, networking, cooling, and inference; Microsoft retains optionality as export controls gamble on a durable US lead despite China’s industrial strengths.