Avi Felman

Avi Felman × Scott Shay

Scott Shay argues Signature Bank had $34 billion in cash and liquidity against an $18 billion run, raised another $20 billion over the weekend, and was mark-to-market positive on March 1, 2023.The takeover’s cause and possible crypto-related regulatory hostility remain unresolved, while launched B2B venture N3XT holds deposits in very short Treasuries and uses a blockchain ledger instead of fractional banking.

Avi Felman × Seth Ginns

Franklin Templeton’s acquisition of Seth Ginns’s CoinFund liquid-fund spinout expands its crypto team, advancing a 2026 convergence thesis while prices lag sell-side momentum.CLARITY’s vote could bring federal preemption if passed; failure would slow progress, leaving commercial adoption as the hedge against political pushback.

Avi Felman × Alexander Good × Jonah Van Bourg

Alex Good’s ad-buying strategy linked acquisition economics to market attention, from long EA/short Booking to Tesla clicks driven by “Elon Musk.”His “goldfish theory” favors recurring attention over forecasting, but fragmentation and trust can break the trade; he is bearish Palantir at 100x sales.He expects AI layoffs within 3 months, while politics and 6% annualized productivity could reshape the opportunity set.

Avi Felman × Ari Paul × Jonah Van Bourg

Ari Paul warns frontier AI labs could face a Los Alamos style lockdown or full US government control within three years, a risk he says markets are not pricing.He also argues AI is where crypto was in 2021-22, with 95% of companies still likely to fail and data-center overbuilding potentially echoing late-90s fiber.The monitor is whether nationalization, stolen IP, private alpha, rotating bottlenecks, and locked-in distribution reshape which AI economics reach shareholders.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Hyperscalers’ $600–700B data-center spending has largely been priced in, and cracks are shifting attention from AI demand to what AI changes across the real economy.Avi favors short Accenture and long XBI/ARKG while warning that volatile memory proxies are not the same as buying suppliers’ products; Micron earnings and biotech’s 50% drawdown test remain key risks.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The Hormuz shock showed that oil supply can be closed financially through insurance even when no tanker is attacked, while gamma-driven selling helped reverse a historic spike.Jonah sees $88 oil as mostly geopolitical premium against a potential glut and prefers expressions with limited negative convexity; the G7’s 400M cumulative SPR pledge and Iran’s unchanged China exports are key catalysts.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Max Bronstein

Bitcoin’s structure shows distribution above $120k, while DAT buying has fallen sharply; Max says he turned bullish only because his system bought the selloff, despite broken higher-timeframe structures in ETH and Solana.MicroStrategy S&P inclusion or renewed preferred financing could revive the marginal bid, while Hyperliquid’s tax-date catalyst, centralized-exchange KYC pressure, and Democratic favorability remain key signals.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Friday's crypto summit has a clear market bar: tens of billions allocated to Bitcoin, or Jonah expects a return to the 80s and at least a month of 85-95k trading.The reserve's top-coin composition offers no differentiation, while the 78k flush and zero open-interest uptick suggest a healthier spot-driven reversal, with sizing, front-running, and congressional language still unresolved.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s $89k–$99k range favors rule-based trades near support or resistance, while returning retail is rotating into familiar assets such as HBAR, IOTA, Algorand, XRP, Chainlink and Litecoin.A US strategic reserve remains the largest disputed catalyst, with Jonah assigning 50%–70% odds within 100 days, while alt liquidity, MicroStrategy’s financing and eventual BTC deleveraging remain key risks.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s post-election rally still looks early, supported by ETF flows, rising dominance and potential regulatory relief, though a move toward $100,000 could bring a tactical pullback.The larger catalyst is policy: a US strategic reserve could support $500,000-$1 million scenarios, while cycle exits depend on MVRV, euphoric alt rotation and the delivery of Trump’s promises.