[BidClub_]
Hard Fork · · 66 min

OpenAI's Fog of War + Betting on Iran + Hard Fork Review of Slop

Kevin RooseCasey NewtonArijeta Lajka

Podcast
TL;DR
  • OpenAI’s Pentagon deal turned a government-contract win into a trust, workforce-retention, and data-center-opposition liability. Sam Altman conceded the rollout looked “opportunistic and sloppy,” then added language barring deliberate domestic tracking of US persons, but OpenAI released only the supposedly relevant contract portion and employees called it “window dressing.” The near-term subscription boycott may fade; the durable risk is Meta-style reputational decay that mobilizes opposition to OpenAI’s planned data centers.

  • Anthropic is simultaneously facing an existential government fight and possibly the fastest revenue ramp in American tech. Bloomberg put the company on track for $20 billion in annualized revenue, versus roughly $1 billion at the start of 2025 and $9 billion around year-end, with Claude Code and enterprise adoption driving a doubling in barely over two months. Yet the Pentagon’s supply-chain-risk designation is official, and the State Department is replacing Claude with OpenAI and reverting to GPT-4.1—leaving Anthropic “printing money” while preparing for costly litigation.

  • Scarce frontier-model talent still has unusual leverage over AI-company strategy. Casey Newton divided OpenAI into a mission-focused, three-plus-year technical core and newer “Meta people” who may tolerate more commercial flexibility; leadership needs the former to build GPT-6 and GPT-7. Post-training lead Max Schwarzer’s departure for Anthropic, alongside public employee distrust, makes military policy a human-capital issue rather than merely consumer communications.

  • The Pentagon dispute may be an early rehearsal for “soft nationalization” of frontier AI. Kevin Roose argues that pressure is more likely to arrive incrementally—remove safeguards, alter model behavior, or let government help write “the clauses in the constitution of Claude”—before any outright takeover. If systems become a “country of geniuses in a data center” embedded in military command and control, private ownership may matter less than who effectively dictates development and deployment.

  • War markets exposed prediction platforms’ core informational paradox: their edge may be insider access, but that same edge creates dangerous incentives. More than 150 accounts reportedly placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000 shortly before the US strike on Iran, while one market still showed roughly 17% odds an hour before the attack. Casey’s verdict—“a bunch of vibes plus some insider trading”—undercuts the price-discovery pitch while sharpening regulatory, reputational, and political risk for Kalshi and Polymarket.

  • YouTube’s children’s-content problem is becoming an AI-scaled sequel to Elsagate. In one controlled 15-minute recommendation session, more than 40% of videos were judged AI-generated; examples ranged from alphabet animals squeezed from goo to violent or bizarre knockoffs of familiar characters. There is no AI-slop filter, labeling generally covers only realistic synthetic media, and cheap generation lets content makers exploit the same engagement algorithm at far greater volume.

Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. OpenAI’s Pentagon deal created a trust crisis it could not amend away

  • Kevin Roose’s starting point: OpenAI said its Pentagon agreement preserved prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, essentially the red lines that had brought Anthropic into conflict with the government. Instead of looking principled, the late deal provoked one of the largest backlashes in OpenAI’s history, including highly upvoted condemnation, ChatGPT cancellations, and users switching to Claude.

  • Casey Newton reduced the disclosure problem to a bleak exchange: both OpenAI and the Pentagon are effectively saying, “You’re just going to have to trust us,” while the public answers, “Well, we don’t.” OpenAI published what it called the relevant contract language, but procurement experts warned that nobody could know whether it was truly sufficient without seeing the entire contract.

  • Altman later admitted, “We shouldn’t have rushed to get this out on Friday,” and said the move looked “opportunistic and sloppy”—or, in Casey’s coinage, “slopportunistic.” OpenAI then amended the agreement to prohibit deliberate tracking, surveillance, or monitoring of US persons or nationals, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information.

  • Casey’s warning was that surveillance disputes often turn on “Jedi mind tricks”: governments can approach the legal limit, then rename surveillance as intelligence gathering. “Whether or not you personally are surveilled will come down to semantics,” which is why a seemingly explicit contractual restriction still leaves material uncertainty about enforcement and interpretation.

2. OpenAI’s hardest constituency is its irreplaceable technical core

  • Employee dissent moved into public view. Leo Gao called the contract language “window dressing,” arguing that it still appeared to leave the Pentagon control over autonomous-weapons deployment and failed to close other loopholes. On Tuesday, post-training lead and research vice president Max Schwarzer announced his departure, praised Anthropic’s values, and said he was joining the rival lab.

  • Casey did not think OpenAI had “stemmed the tide.” The AMA, blog post, partial contract disclosure, and amendments showed that leadership was “really going for it,” but also that it was “really scared”: AI was already associated with slop and workplace coercion, and adding government spying or “a murder bot” made public rejection almost automatic.

  • Kevin had assumed Silicon Valley’s worker-empowerment era had ended. Casey argued that frontier researchers possess scarce knowledge about training next-generation systems; because they are difficult to replace, their ethical discomfort retains strategic force.

  • Casey’s deliberately sweeping taxonomy separated a mission-driven cohort with three-plus years at OpenAI from newer “Meta people” who may be more flexible about company conduct. Leadership can tolerate the second group’s acquiescence, but it needs the original core to make GPT-6 and GPT-7 “blow everybody’s minds,” so much of the damage control was aimed internally.

3. Anthropic is “printing money” while the government attacks its distribution

  • Casey’s two-word summary of Anthropic’s commercial position was “printing money,” followed by the larger paradox: “Has an American technology company ever had such a good week and such a bad week at the same time?” The Pentagon fight could still involve the Defense Production Act, potentially compelling Anthropic to provide a version of Claude it does not want to build.

  • The bad side became concrete when the Pentagon formally notified Anthropic of its supply-chain-risk designation. Casey expects a long, expensive legal battle over whether American companies may continue using Claude for nonmilitary purposes, with “an existential threat to the company” still buried inside the dispute.

  • The counterweight is extraordinary growth: Bloomberg reported that Anthropic was on track for $20 billion in annualized revenue, up from roughly $1 billion at the start of 2025. Anthropic was on pace for about $9 billion by the end of 2025, then more than doubled in barely over two months as Claude Code and enterprise Claude adoption accelerated.

  • Federal displacement is already visible. Reuters reported that the State Department replaced Anthropic in its internal chatbot with OpenAI and went back to GPT-4.1, an early-2025 model; Kevin’s comparison was that “the average college freshman with a ChatGPT subscription” now has substantially better tools than the State Department.

4. Consumer anger may fade, but institutional distrust compounds

  • Altman has repeatedly urged the Pentagon to offer Anthropic the same terms it gave OpenAI. Casey saw sincere de-escalatory intent—Altman does not want the government nationalizing AI companies “at least not right now”—but also obvious competitive cover: if Claude accepted identical terms, OpenAI could neutralize “quit ChatGPT” campaigns.

  • Kevin doubted consumer boycotts would matter, recalling repeated promises to delete Uber or quit Facebook. Casey agreed that cancellations usually blow over, but invoked Meta’s more durable lesson: users stayed while learning to hate and distrust the company, weakening it politically even when most people did not quit.

  • The physical pressure point is data centers. OpenAI intends to build many across the country, while local opposition is already entering politics; if the company cannot persuade communities that AI will improve their lives, resistance to nearby infrastructure can become a proxy for broader distrust.

5. The Pentagon fight looks like a rehearsal for AI nationalization

  • Kevin framed the long-run question through Dario Amodei’s “country of geniuses in a data center”: once such systems carry decisive geopolitical and security value, can they remain inside private corporations? Casey said models already embedded in military command and control are becoming weapons, and that he absolutely believes the government will take an interest in systems three, four, five, or 10 times more powerful and potentially oversee their development and deployment.

  • The outcome depends on “the quality of the government” doing the overseeing. Casey contrasted a state seeking opportunity, safety, and democracy with one seeking an authoritarian global takeover; the technology’s concentration makes governance quality part of the asset’s fundamental risk, not an external political footnote.

  • Kevin wondered whether the rational response was to stop dealing with an untrustworthy federal counterparty. Casey noted that even after the Anthropic confrontation, Amodei said the company had nearly reached agreement, liked working with the military, and wanted to resume—an effort to “keep the tigers at bay” while buying time.

  • Kevin’s view was that “soft nationalization” was the more likely direction: incremental demands to remove safeguards, modify models, or let officials shape “the clauses in the constitution of Claude.” He would not dismiss brute-force takeover, but expects control to shift through pressure before ownership formally changes.

6. The Manhattan Project analogy reveals where scientific control ends

  • Rereading The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Kevin focused on scientists’ unsuccessful 1945 petitions against using the weapon on a city as the first act of war. Government effectively replied: “You’re the scientists. You’re the geniuses who made this all work. But now you’re playing in our turf,” then took control of deployment.

  • He also marked the analogy’s limit: the Manhattan Project was government-funded and staffed, whereas today’s frontier systems were built by private companies. Still, once the capability becomes too useful to governments and militaries, even a different ownership history may not preserve corporate autonomy.

  • Casey added that OpenAI was initially imagined as a government-funded project, but its founders correctly concluded no government would supply the required capital. Private financing solved the development problem without eliminating the expectation that the state would eventually take an interest.

  • The political reversal struck Casey as “the whiplash is insane.” President Biden’s order gently requested safety-testing information and agency preparation, yet critics called it anti-capitalist; the same people who objected to that approach later came to power and said, in effect, build models for the military as directed “or else we will destroy you.”

7. Iran bets turned prediction markets from abstraction into direct incentives

  • Kalshi bars explicit war and assassination bets but listed “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader,” a proxy whose wording allowed multiple interpretations even though Casey assumed most traders expected death in war. Kalshi later voided the market and said it would reimburse anyone who may have lost money, angering bettors who believed they had correctly predicted Khamenei’s death and deserved their winnings.

  • Casey’s response to disappointed traders was categorical: “I don’t care. And it doesn’t matter.” Polymarket was still more permissive, offering wagers on strike dates and other operational details, though it drew one boundary at nuclear detonations by specified dates.

  • Senator Chris Murphy called the situation “insane,” argued that people around Trump were profiting from “war and death,” and proposed legislation. The concern exceeds bad taste: Israel had recently arrested people accused of using classified military information to place Polymarket bets, showing that the incentive problem was already starting to happen.

  • The Times reported that last Friday more than 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000 predicting an American strike by Saturday—an unusual concentration of correctly timed money. A service member with advance orders could treat the platform as a “little Kalshi bonus,” converting classified operational knowledge into personal profit.

8. Prediction-market prices are “vibes plus some insider trading”

  • Kevin had accepted the theoretical case that money improves forecasts: traders may build better polling, reveal beliefs they would hide from pollsters, or transmit insiders’ superior information. But Kalshi officially prohibits inside-information betting, the CFTC is small, and categories of public versus private information are much less settled outside securities markets.

  • Casey’s challenge went to utility: beyond a brief warning that something horrible might happen, what did the Iran contracts help the public understand? An hour before the strikes, one market reportedly showed only roughly 17% probability—suggesting prices aggregate vibes until an informed trader arrives and captures the edge.

  • Kevin steelmanned the defense that people already profit from wars through defense stocks and oil. Casey’s distinction was directness: buying oil shares is meaningfully removed from assassinating a leader, while a dated removal contract could function like a bounty and create “the same horribly grim incentives.”

  • Regulation faces a time race. Casey fears Kalshi and Polymarket could become crypto-like entrenched interests with enough money to secure bipartisan protection; Kevin’s deliberately friction-heavy alternative was requiring war bettors to visit “a seedy, like, OTB betting place” instead of wagering instantly by phone.

9. YouTube’s AI-slop pipeline scales the same old engagement failure

  • The review showed alphabet animals squeezed from paint tubes, injected by an animal doctor until they changed color, or transformed into armored vehicles. Casey identified both the attention hack—needles frighten children—and the production logic: alphabet videos let creators stitch together the few-second clips current AI video generators produce into something superficially coherent.

  • Kevin pushed back on claims that hyperstimulation began with AI: CoComelon and other established children’s shows already use rapid songs and cuts, meaning “we crossed the Rubicon a while ago.” AI’s decisive change is economic—making endless surreal variations easier and cheaper—while Casey worried that raw visual bombardment replaces calm, story, and narrative development.

  • Ariella Leka’s investigation began by looking at recommendations around channels parents approve of, including Ms. Rachel and Bluey, then testing what appeared next to CoComelon videos. In one 15-minute session, more than 40% of the videos were AI-generated; her team logged recommendations without interacting, then inspected frames for morphing objects, distorted text, synthetic labels, and abrupt changes in longstanding channels’ production style.

  • YouTube requires disclosure mainly for realistic synthetic media, leaving animated AI content largely unlabeled and parents without a filter. Ariella cited cognitive overload, weak narrative arcs, and rapid changes for under-fives; worse, searches surfaced Masha’s stomach being cut open and pregnant KPop Demon Hunters characters—a cheap, scalable sequel to Elsagate. Shorts time limits may help, but the closing discussion broadened the concern to older teens and adults: TikTok and Instagram Reels can likewise deliver raw, hypnotic stimuli across a lifelong pipeline of engagement-optimized slop.

Kevin Roose

Something horrible has happened.

Casey Newton

What's that?

Kevin Roose

My wife has fallen in love with an AI.

Casey Newton

Which AI?

Kevin Roose

For background, my wife is not a very techy person. She's not an early adopter. She works in city government.

Casey Newton

She's a regular adopter.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

When it gets good, she's interested. But don't talk to her before then.

Casey Newton

Exactly. It just got good enough for her to take an interest. Yesterday, she discovered Claude Code—

Kevin Roose

Hmm.

Kevin Roose

—and started using it to do some stuff at work, and now it's all she wants to talk about. We were out at a party last night, and she's like, "I just can't stop thinking about my coding." She had a dream about vibe coding last night.

Casey Newton

Really?

Kevin Roose

Maybe all of this is some karmic revenge for the Bing Sydney episode, but I do feel like I'm getting a taste of my own medicine here.

Casey Newton

I mean, to me, this seems like your dream come true. What does any man want more than his wife taking an interest in his hobby? This could be one of the best things that's happened to you in a long time.

Kevin Roose

It's true. I think we've always benefited in our marriage from the fact that we are—

Casey Newton

Are you speaking about our marriage or your marriage to your wife?

Kevin Roose

My marriage—

Casey Newton

Oh, okay.

Kevin Roose

—to my wife, we're interested in different things, and we can cross-pollinate. I guess I want to ask you, as someone who's in a relationship—

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

—with someone who works in AI—

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

—how do you stop talking about it? Do you have set hours where you're like, "We're not going to talk about AI for this next hour"?

Casey Newton

Here's what I'll say: If I ever figure that out, you'll be the first to know.

Kevin Roose

Okay, thank you.

Casey Newton

In my house, the few respites we get from AI during the week would involve Friday night episodes of RuPaul's Drag Race. That's a good, solid 1 hour—

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

—of not talking about AI.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

Outside of that, we're really monitoring the situation, Casey. We are fully locked in.

Kevin Roose

I'm Kevin Roose, a tech columnist at The New York Times.

Casey Newton

I'm Casey Newton from Platformer.

Kevin Roose

And this is Hard Fork.

Casey Newton

This week, OpenAI scrambles to contain the fallout from its deal with the Pentagon. Then, how prediction markets have become one of the most controversial parts of the US attack on Iran. And finally, it's a Hard Fork review of slop for children.

Kevin Roose

You'll never guess what Peppa Pig is doing now.

Kevin Roose

Well, Casey, we are now in week 2 of this incredible, high-stakes drama that's been playing out between the Pentagon and America's leading AI companies. There's been a lot going on. We now have more clarity on why the deal between Anthropic and the Pentagon fell apart. We also know how this Anthropic supply chain risk designation is actually going into effect and impacting the way that government agencies are responding. And we have been learning this week about how OpenAI's deal with the Pentagon is shaping up.

So, lots to discuss here, but first, we should make our disclosures. I work at The New York Times, which is suing OpenAI, Microsoft, and Perplexity over alleged copyright violations.

Casey Newton

And my fiancée works at Anthropic.

Kevin Roose

Okay. Let's start with OpenAI, because they are sort of the late arrival into this story, but in some ways the most dramatic. Since Sam Altman announced last Friday that OpenAI had arrived at an agreement with the Pentagon, we have learned a little bit more about that agreement. As a reminder, according to Sam Altman, this agreement did include some prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons systems—basically the same 2 red lines that Anthropic had set out, which were causing them so much trouble with the Pentagon.

I think it's fair to say this provoked one of the biggest backlashes in that company's history.

Casey Newton

It really did. We've seen it across social media. Many top-upvoted posts on OpenAI-related subreddits have been condemning this move. OpenAI has been scrambling to try to rebuild trust. But at the end of the day, Kevin, I think both the Pentagon and OpenAI are saying to the public, "You're just going to have to trust us," and the public is saying, "Well, we don't."

Kevin Roose

Right. A lot of people have been canceling their ChatGPT subscriptions and switching over to Claude as a result of all of this—people who don't agree with the Trump administration or the stance that the Pentagon has taken here. Presumably because they're seeing some pain in the cancellations department, as well as a general feeling that this narrative is not going well for them, Sam Altman has been doing some damage control.

On Saturday, he hopped on X to talk about this and answer questions about the Pentagon deal along with 2 other employees. These questions were the kinds of things you'd expect: people asking, "What did you guys agree to that Anthropic didn't? Where are your red lines? Who's going to be making the kinds of hard decisions during something like a war about how these models can and can't be used? What about this domestic mass surveillance thing?"

I think he answered some of these questions, but the thing that they also did was release the language of this contract that had been in dispute and had been the subject of so much speculation.

Casey Newton

Well, they released what they called the relevant portion of the contract, but we would see later commentary from experts in government procurement that said, essentially, "Until we see the entire contract, it's just very difficult for us to take at face value the idea that this is the only relevant language here."

Kevin Roose

Right. They did not release the whole contract, but they did release some relevant language from this contract with the Pentagon in a blog post. Then, on Monday, Sam admitted that he made a mistake. He said, "We shouldn't have rushed to get this out on Friday." He also added that it looked opportunistic and sloppy.

Casey Newton

Or slopportunistic, to coin a phrase.

Kevin Roose

Yes, it was slopportunistic. He announced that OpenAI was going to amend its deal with the Pentagon to explicitly rule out the use of OpenAI's tools for domestic surveillance of US persons and nationals. It includes the following language: "The Department understands this limitation to prohibit deliberate tracking, surveillance, or monitoring of US persons or nationals, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information."

I found this all slightly confusing. Casey, do you understand what OpenAI has said and the various evolutions of its position on this?

Casey Newton

I think the key takeaways here are that they are saying they have put in some amended language that will prohibit certain uses of their systems by the government. For example, they're going to prevent the government from using commercial data that they acquire legally and running that through GPT models for domestic surveillance.

I just want to say, though, that there is always a high risk here for what I would call Jedi mind tricks, Kevin, and for the government, because we have seen Democratic and Republican presidents do this, right? They go to the absolute limit of what the law will allow when it comes to surveillance of Americans, and one way they'll get around that is by saying, "Well, we're not doing surveillance, Kevin. We're doing some intelligence gathering," right?

As annoying as it is to fixate on the semantics here, I'm telling you that whether or not you personally are surveilled will come down to semantics. That's why we're digging in the way we are.

Kevin Roose

Okay, so there are still lots of questions about some of the details here. I think there's a lot of doubt and concern among some OpenAI employees that this actually ended up in a place they're comfortable with.

Casey Newton

Boy, is there. Some of that employee discontent spilled over onto X, where you had some employees saying, essentially, that they didn't trust their leadership either. An employee named Leo Gao called the contract language window dressing and pointed out that it still seems to give the Pentagon control over when to deploy autonomous weapons and just doesn't do much to address some of the other loopholes.

Then, maybe more dramatically, Kevin, on Tuesday, Max Schwarzer, who was the post-training lead for OpenAI and a vice president of research at the company, announced that he was leaving. In his X post, while pretty vague, he suggested that this was an important time and that he had come to really respect Anthropic's values. He said he's going over to work there.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So what's your take on how the damage control is going for OpenAI? Do you think they have warded off the most heated criticism, or are people still really mad?

1. OpenAI Damage Control

Casey Newton

I do not think that they have stemmed the tide.

I think they put a lot of effort into changing the narrative here. When I saw that they were doing that X AMA, that they had put up a blog post, and that they were quoting at least some of the contract language, I thought, “These guys are really going for it.” That also told me that they were really scared.

But here’s the thing to remember, Kevin: Most Americans just don’t like AI very much. They didn’t in the first place. They didn’t like it for all the normal reasons: My social media feed is filling up with slop, but my manager’s telling me I have to use it every day or I’m gonna get fired.

When you add into that mix the possibility that it’s also going to be used by your own government to spy on you or maybe kill you with a murder bot, of course Americans are gonna say, “Well, this fricking sucks,” right? So I think this was the strategic miscalculation that Sam Altman made. At least according to him, he thought he was gonna get into this dispute, be able to deescalate it, and come in as the white knight and save the AI industry from the overreach of the US government. What he found out instead is that they’re kind of holding the bag of all of the discontent that the Pentagon whipped up with this forced policy change.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, it’s really interesting to me because I think my assumption had been that we were over the era of worker empowerment in Silicon Valley, right? Years ago, pre-COVID, we had all these Google walkouts and employee protests over military contracts, and I think a lot of CEOs and leaders at these companies said, “We’re not doing that again.” They said, “We’re not gonna give our employees veto power over the deals that we make or the contracts we sign.”

And it suggests to me that what’s going on at OpenAI right now is that, at least in their specific case, where you do have this staff of elite technical talent that is not easily replaceable, there aren’t that many people who know how to build and train these models, you actually do need to keep them happy. Those people, maybe only those people, still have significant leverage.

Casey Newton

Yeah. Let me make a sort of sweeping generalization, right? I think there are 2 major camps at OpenAI. One is the camp that has been there for, let’s say, 3-plus years: the real experts you just mentioned who have this critical knowledge for how to build next-generation frontier systems that almost nobody else in the world has.

Those people tend to care a lot about how the technology is used. These are people who joined OpenAI in part because it was a nonprofit, right? There is a solid core of those folks who are still working there. And then there’s a group at OpenAI that I’m just gonna call the Meta people—the people who came over from Meta a little more recently who may be a little more flexible in what they’re willing to see their company do. I don’t think they’re gonna raise a big stink about this.

The problem for OpenAI leadership is that you actually need that original core, right? If you’re gonna build a GPT-6 and GPT-7 that are gonna blow everybody’s minds, those are the people you’re gonna need. And so, yes, almost everything that we have seen over the past few days in their attempts at damage control is aimed at those people.

Kevin Roose

Okay, so that’s a little bit of the drama going on at OpenAI. What is happening at Anthropic?

Casey Newton

Printing money—in 2 words, I would say. I wrote this in my newsletter this week, Kevin, but has an American technology company ever had such a good week and such a bad week at the same time?

Kevin Roose

Explain.

Casey Newton

On the bad side, obviously they’re in a very heated fight with the Pentagon, and that continues, by the way. It seems like there is still some risk that perhaps the president will try to invoke the Defense Production Act to compel Anthropic to make the version of Claude that it does not want to make, which would do its bidding.

It also seems that the supply chain risk designation is now official. We learned on Thursday that the Pentagon sent a formal letter to Anthropic. So if nothing else, this is going to result in a long and costly legal battle as Anthropic tries to ensure that American companies can still use it for nonmilitary purposes, right? There is actually an existential threat to the company buried somewhere inside there, and it is by no means over.

Kevin Roose

Right. But on the good side?

Casey Newton

On the good side, Bloomberg reported this week that Anthropic is on track to hit $20 billion in annualized revenue. At the start of 2025, Kevin, they were on pace to earn about $1 billion in annualized revenue. So this company has 20x’d over the past year.

They were on pace to make about $9 billion by the end of 2025, so it has doubled in barely over 2 months. That speaks to the rise of Claude Code and the overwhelming adoption of Claude in the enterprise. In that respect, this really has become maybe the fastest-growing American technology company of all time.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, and what’s so strange about this sort of dual quantum state at Anthropic right now is that, at the same time that they are printing money, people are signing up for Claude, they’re switching from ChatGPT, and things appear to be going well for them, they are also being pulled out of the federal government, right? Forcibly.

There was some reporting this week by Reuters that the US State Department has started to comply with President Trump’s order to stop using Anthropic’s models. They have switched the model powering their in-house State Department chatbot from Anthropic’s models to OpenAI, according to a memo seen by Reuters.

Furthermore, this Reuters report said that the State Department is going back to GPT-4.1. If you have not been tracking all of the model names and numbers as closely as we have, that is several generations ago. That’s an early-2025 model.

Basically, what that means is that the average college freshman with a ChatGPT subscription now has access to substantially better AI tools than the Department of State.

Casey Newton

Yeah. It’s not great for a lot of reasons, Kevin, and one of them, as the blog Lawfare covered this week, is that there appears to be no statutory authority for the president to do what he did. There is not a statute that lets the president just declare that federal agencies cannot use individual software. But because this is just the way the Trump administration works, everyone has decided to defer to the president.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I want to ask you about this other interesting piece of OpenAI’s response over the last week, which is that Sam Altman has said multiple times that he wants the Pentagon to extend the same deal to Anthropic that it extended to OpenAI. Do you think that is sincere? What is going on here? Why is Sam Altman saying, “Hey, if you’re making these terms available to us, you should also make them available to other AI companies”?

Casey Newton

I think that is the part of Sam that appears to be sincere in saying that he wants to deescalate this conflict. He does not want the United States government to come in and nationalize the AI companies, at least not right now, right?

Maybe if OpenAI could reach some sort of agreement that would provide at least some protections for Americans, and other AI companies would sign on to it, that would release the pressure on the industry overall. Now, of course, at the same time, it would buy him a lot of cover, and all of a sudden people wouldn’t be mounting these “Quit ChatGPT” campaigns because Sam could be on X saying, “Well, you know, Claude is doing the same thing.”

Kevin Roose

Do you think that’s real? How big a deal do you think this consumer opposition is? I’m somewhat jaded on this point because I can’t count the number of times that people have said, “Oh, we’re all gonna cancel our subscriptions to this thing,” or, “We’re gonna delete Uber,” or, “We’re gonna quit Facebook in protest,” and it never really seems to have much of an impact. But do you think in this case that enough people are mad about this at the consumer level that it could actually impact their business?

Casey Newton

Not really. I think you’re exactly right. Usually these things just tend to blow over in a few days, and I’m sure that OpenAI is counting on that.

At the same time, though, Kevin, I think back to the lesson that Meta learned. As it had its own series of controversies, by and large, people did not quit Facebook or Instagram. But you know what they did do? They just started to hate Meta as a company and developed really low trust in that company, and that winds up hurting Meta in all sorts of ways.

The particular way, by the way, that I think this is gonna hurt OpenAI is that they’re gearing up to go out and build a lot of data centers around this country, and there’s already enormous backlash that we’re seeing. We’re starting to see it creep into our politics.

If they are not able to reverse the narrative and convince people that AI is gonna have hugely positive outcomes in their lives, I think you’re gonna see the data-center opposition ramp up as a proxy for people’s general distrust of that company.

Kevin Roose

Right. It's the visible, physical symbol of all of this, and for most people, the only one that's anywhere near them. I think you're right. It could turn into a political problem for them, even if people aren't canceling their ChatGPT subscriptions en masse.

2. The Nationalization Threat

I want to ask you about something else that I've been thinking a lot about this week, which is this idea that you mentioned of nationalization. There's been a debate happening on social media about this idea that if we are headed to a world with very powerful AI systems in it, as Dario Amodei calls it, a country of geniuses in a data center, eventually that will just not be allowed to happen inside a private corporation.

The US government, whether a year or 2 years or 5 years from now, at some point will step in and say, “Hey, you guys built this really cool thing that's really useful and has all these important geopolitical and national security implications. We're going to just take that now, and you work for us now.” I'm curious what you make of that as a possibility, because some people who I consider quite serious and credible have been talking about this threat of nationalization for several years now.

Casey Newton

Yeah. If you go to the nerdy AI conferences that Kevin and I do, this comes up a lot at the tabletop role-playing games that people do during lunch, right? At some point, a government of 1 or more countries steps in and takes over the AI lab.

I understand in this moment that feels like a sci-fi scenario. Most of the time when you're using ChatGPT, you probably don't think this is a dangerous superweapon and we need to ensure that this is being controlled by the president. At the same time, we are now at war with Iran. We know that these systems are embedded in the command-and-control operations of the military, and so to some extent they are already becoming weapons, right?

If you say to me, do I think that once these systems become 3, 4, 5, or 10 times more powerful, the government will want to take an interest in them and potentially oversee their development and deployment? I absolutely believe that will happen. I see no reason why that wouldn't happen. Unfortunately, how that goes, I think depends a lot on the quality of the government that is overseeing that AI and what they want to do. Do they want to use it to create opportunity and safety and democracy for all? Or do they want to mount an authoritarian takeover of the globe?

Kevin Roose

So if you are a leader at 1 of these companies and you know that, at least until 2028, we are likely to have the same administration in power, if you believe that the technology is rapidly accelerating such that a year or 2 or 3 from now we might have something like a superhuman country of geniuses in a data center, what does that mean you should do?

One thing that I've been thinking about is, should these companies be doing deals with the government at all? If the lesson of the past couple of weeks is that the federal government is not a trustworthy counterparty in these negotiations and is going to insist on total control and obedience, or else they're going to try to nuke your company, I think a very rational response from these AI companies will be, “Well, we're just not going to make any more deals with you. You're going to have to use some open-source models for your State Department, your military, and your Treasury, because it's just too risky for us as a business risk, and you can't be trusted with it.”

Casey Newton

I could see why that may seem somewhat rational to them, but I don't think that's the tack that they're going to take. Even this week, after everything that has happened with Anthropic, Dario Amodei is still out there saying, “We were very close to an agreement with the Pentagon. We liked working with the military. We want to work with the military again,” right?

I think that's very important to note. Dario did not throw up his middle fingers on his way out the door. He is still trying to reach some sort of agreement, and I think in part that likely is to avoid the exact sort of scenario that you are describing. You want to keep the tigers at bay for just a little while longer, at least, while you think through the rest of that scenario, which is admittedly a very difficult one.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I've been rereading The Making of the Atomic Bomb this week, which is Dario Amodei's favorite book. He used to give it to all Anthropic employees, and there's still a bunch of copies at their headquarters. It's the company book as far as their mission goes. They see a lot of parallels between what they're building and the Manhattan Project.

I went back and reread it, and the piece that struck me from that experience was that right before the bombs were dropped in 1945, there was this point where the scientists got really worried about how their creation was going to be used. A number of them from the Manhattan Project created these petitions and reports and tried to get them to the government and say, “Hey, could you guys not use this against a city, at least as a first-line act of war?”

The military and the government pretended to hear them out, and then they just went ahead and bombed Japan anyway. There was this moment where it was, “We hear you. You're the scientists. You're the geniuses who made this all work. But now you're playing in our turf, and so we're going to control the technology from here. Thank you for your input.”

I think the comparison between the Manhattan Project and the AI industry is somewhat overstated, and I think it breaks down in some key ways. One of them is that the Manhattan Project was a government project. It was paid for by the government, and these were government employees. What we're talking about now are private companies that have been developing this thing outside the public sector.

I think there are some important differences, but I do worry that we are headed toward a moment where this stuff just gets so useful to governments and militaries and confers such a decisive advantage to the countries that control it that the US government, no matter who is in power, is just going to say, “This thing is too important to be left to the private sector.”

Casey Newton

Well, keep in mind that 1 of the original ideas for OpenAI was that it should be a government-funded project. Sam Altman and his cofounders just came to the conclusion, correctly, by the way, that no government would give them the amount of money they needed to build this technology, right? They quickly came to the conclusion that it was going to have to be a private enterprise.

Going back to the earliest days, there was thinking among the people who created this technology that the government was going to take an interest in it eventually. Another reason, though, Kevin, why I find the current situation so vexing is that you and I both covered President Biden's executive order on AI, which I personally felt like was a pretty gentle way of attempting to regulate the industry.

Kevin Roose

Very gentle.

Casey Newton

It was sort of, “Inform us about your safety testing when you test these new models, please,” and told federal agencies to get ready for this technology. The howls of protest on the right said, “How dare this administration come in and try to put these fetters on capitalism? We are going to lose to China because of this nanny-state behavior.”

Then to see those same people come to power and now say, “We are going to tell you exactly how you are going to build your models, what they're going to do for the military, or else we will destroy you,” is just—I don't know. The whiplash is insane.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. We didn't like that government trying to control the tech industry, but this government trying to control the tech industry? That's just business as usual.

Casey Newton

Right.

Kevin Roose

That's fine.

Casey Newton

Right.

Kevin Roose

So I guess my worry, zooming out from all of this stuff that's been going on for the past 2 weeks, is that we are sort of living through an early dress rehearsal for what something like nationalization of the AI companies could look and feel like.

I don't think it's going to be as cut-and-dried as it was during World War II, where the government showed up to a bunch of steel plants and was like, “Hey, we run these now.” I think it's going to be this soft nationalization, like we've been seeing over the past week, where it's a little pressure to build your models differently. “Maybe could you remove some of those safeguards? Maybe this is actually so strategically important that we need to be the people putting the clauses in the constitution of Claude or whatever that dictate how it will behave in these high-stakes situations.”

I think that is a more likely direction, but I would not take full, brute-force nationalization off the table entirely. I think there's a decent chance that something like that happens.

Casey Newton

Hmm. Well, maybe we should set up a prediction market for it.

Kevin Roose

Speaking of prediction markets, when we come back, we'll talk about how prediction markets have made it to war.

Casey Newton

So predictable.

3. Prediction Markets Enter War

Kevin Roose

Okay, Casey, so the other big news from the past week is that the United States is now at war in Iran, and one angle that really has been sticking out to me about this is the role that prediction markets are playing in this conflict, because I think that is something that we truly have not seen before.

Casey Newton

Yeah, it seems like every new war brings along some grim new technology, and I would say that prediction markets are maybe grim technology number one for this conflict in Iran.

Kevin Roose

Yes, it's a grim technology already, even absent the war, and now, just with the war, it has become even grimmer. We've talked about prediction markets on the show. We talked about them way back in 2023, when they were sort of this new thing that was in a legal gray area that wasn't really being done at any scale yet. It was sort of an interesting idea. Now, of course, you cannot walk down a street in a major American city without seeing one, and probably multiple ads, for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Casey Newton

Yeah, the sort of gambling mania that has taken over all media and advertising, from DraftKings to FanDuel, has now extended even further into these prediction markets.

Kevin Roose

So both Polymarket and Kalshi, the 2 leading prediction-market platforms, took a lot of heat this week on bets they were allowing their users to make on questions related to Iran. Kalshi, which is the more regulated, U.S.-based prediction-market company, does not allow bets on war or assassination, but it did allow the question “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?”—basically, a careful proxy for betting on the outcome of a war or a strike on Iran.

Casey Newton

Yeah, and “out,” I suppose, could have many meanings. Perhaps there would be a sort of gentle democratic revolution in Iran. But I'm going to assume that most of the people who were wagering on that one assumed that he was going to be killed in war.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, so people got really mad at Kalshi for allowing these bets on the fate of the Iranian leader. They also got mad when Kalshi voided this market and said that it was going to reimburse anyone who may have lost money on this—basically, make sure everyone ends up in the black. But people who were supposed to make a bunch of money because they correctly predicted the death of Khamenei were mad that they didn't get paid out their expected winnings. So, just a big cluster all around.

Casey Newton

And I just want to say, if you were one of the traders who did not get your expected winnings from the death of the Ayatollah, I just want to say, I don't care. It doesn't matter.

Kevin Roose

So Polymarket, the other, less regulated, offshore, crypto-based prediction market, was even more permissive. They allowed people to bet on the dates of strikes on Iran and other details related to the war in Iran.

Casey Newton

Their policy was really like, “Imagine the worst thing you could do on our platform. You can do that.”

Kevin Roose

Actually, they did draw a line when it came down to markets that allowed users to bet on the likelihood of nuclear detonations by specific dates. So, sorry to anyone who was trying to cash in on nuclear war.

Casey Newton

These woke liberals that won't let me bet on nuclear explosions need to go, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Okay, so no one was happy about this. Senator Chris Murphy posted that, quote, “It's insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death,” and also said that he was introducing legislation to ban this. There are also a bunch of people looking into whether any of this has been done via insider trading. Basically, do you have people in the military or close to the decision-makers in this conflict placing bets once they have this sort of nonpublic information about what is going to be happening?

4. The War Betting Problem

Casey Newton

Yeah, and I think it speaks to why allowing prediction markets to take bets, at least around war and death, is so corrosive and bad, Kevin. Because not only is it grim—how do we live in this society where gambling on war and death has become a form of entertainment?—but you're also creating incentives for the worst things in the world to happen, which doesn't seem logical to me.

Kevin Roose

Well, and it's not even a theoretical harm here. Recently, Israel arrested a number of people who were accused of using classified information to bet on military operations on Polymarket. So this is already starting to happen, and I think this is why people like Senator Chris Murphy are so alarmed about this—not just because it's gross and aesthetically offensive to have people betting on wars.

Casey Newton

Although it is.

Kevin Roose

But, yeah, although it is, also because it could create direct incentives. If you're a member of the military and your commander gives you an order to go do an airstrike on an Iranian compound, you could log onto your phone, head over to one of the prediction-market platforms, and say, “You know what? I could make a couple grand off this.”

Casey Newton

Yeah, that's your little Kalshi bonus. This is not theoretical at all, Kevin. In fact, your colleague Amy Phan at The Times wrote that, “It is relatively uncommon for someone to bet a significant sum of money that a U.S. strike will happen within the next day. But last Friday, more than 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000 correctly predicting that there would be an American airstrike on Iran by Saturday.”

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So I think one of the interesting things here is that I'm not a blanket opponent of prediction markets, right? I bought some of the theoretical arguments for why something like a prediction market could, for example, outperform political polls, because it would incentivize people to come up with really good polling data and use that to trade on. You could end up with a better picture of a given election.

Casey Newton

Or people will say what they really think because their money is at stake, and they're not just trying to impress a pollster.

Kevin Roose

Yes. And you've actually had some of the people who are in charge of these prediction markets talking about the fact that insider trading can be good because it can get the best information to the markets as quickly as possible and give people an unfiltered understanding of what the real insiders are thinking.

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

Now, of course, officially, you are not supposed to be able to insider-trade on these platforms, right? They all have policies against it. Kalshi says they've investigated people, and that it is actually illegal per the CFTC, which is their main regulator, to place bets using inside information. But there are a couple of problems with this. One is that the CFTC is a tiny agency. It doesn't have a huge team of enforcers going out to investigate what I assume must be hundreds or thousands of trades using inside information on its platform every day.

It's also not clear what is public information and what is private information. There are certain types of information in the stock market that are considered material nonpublic information that it is illegal to trade on. But it is also legal to fly a drone over an oil facility to see how their production is going, or to park outside a store and see the foot traffic going in and out and use that to calculate how well their sales must be going.

Casey Newton

I find it suspicious how much you know about the insider-trading rules, I have to say. I didn't know you had this much facility with the law here.

Kevin Roose

I'm calling my lawyer.

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

But, of course, this is part of the appeal of prediction markets in general: They incentivize people with good information to trade on that information.

Casey Newton

Yes. And if you allow people to wager on almost anything, how are you ever possibly going to police the entire platform to understand who is insider-trading and who isn't?

Kevin Roose

Yes. So I think in this specific case of war, it is very dangerous for some of the reasons that we've talked about. Not only do you have military officers and service members disclosing classified information in some cases to make a little extra for themselves, but you also have this incredibly strange war-profiteering innovation where you can just go on one of these platforms and try to make a bunch of money from something that involves a lot of devastation and destruction.

Casey Newton

The other thing that comes to mind for me, Kevin, is that, as you say, the prediction-market backers’ argument is, “This just helps us understand the world better,” right? “This is a new kind of information that helps us see more clearly.” And yet, as I look across all of the trades that you just described, I don’t understand what I was supposed to see more clearly, right? Maybe you get a brief heads-up about something horrible that is about to happen. Maybe that’s useful in at least some circumstances. But for the most part, I just don’t feel like we actually have a much better understanding of the world because all of these bets are happening.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. And I think in this specific case, that’s especially true because if you actually look at the markets that were being traded before this strike on Iran, the conventional wisdom of the crowd was that this was not going to happen. It was a very low probability—I think something like 17% probability—on one of these platforms an hour before the strikes. So these markets aren’t actually distributing the best possible information at all times. They’re just aggregating vibes until someone with inside information shows up and makes a fortune.

Casey Newton

Well, I think that’s exactly it. It isn’t as if these have been adopted by the mainstream and everybody’s placing these sort of casual bets, and now we have this beautiful, perfect understanding of the world. What we have, as you say, is a bunch of vibes plus some insider trading. And it just doesn’t actually seem that useful to me in practice for most things.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I want to try to steelman the defense of prediction markets here and see what you make of it. So I think someone who believes that these prediction markets are good in the aggregate might say something like the following. People have been betting on war forever. They bet on the stock prices of defense companies. They bet on things like oil prices. That is all legal. We consider that sort of part of the normal markets. Those things all fluctuate when you have a war break out. How is this any different? Your response.

Casey Newton

Well, I think that it is actually really meaningful that these are indirect ways of betting on war, right? It seems very unlikely to me that if I buy oil stocks assuming that they’re going to go up, that I’m creating an incentive for somebody to assassinate the supreme leader of Iran.

Kevin Roose

But wasn’t this the whole conspiracy theory about the war in Iraq, that it was just motivated by Dick Cheney owning a bunch of stock in Halliburton?

Casey Newton

Well, yes, that was the conspiracy theory. I don’t know that that was what was actually driving it. I think that, as with most wars, at least at that time, there were a number of interrelated factors that were going on. Maybe oil was one of them. But my point here is just that when you have the betting at some sort of meaningful remove from the action, it just feels better to me. It doesn’t create the same horribly grim incentives that this particular approach does.

Kevin Roose

Right. I think the difference for me is the directness that you mention. And one thing that came up over and over again when I was talking to people about prediction markets a couple years ago for this story is that the assassination markets get really dark. Because if you have something like, “Will this world leader be removed from power,” in air quotes—

Casey Newton

Wink, wink.

Kevin Roose

—before a certain date, that could actually create a bounty on that person, where someone might go out and say, “Hey, if I want to make money on this, I need to kill this person before this date.”

Casey Newton

And what is going to be the first thing that actually takes action on that, Kevin? OpenClaw. Mark my words. One of these bots plugged into a Mac mini is going to see a prediction market for the assassination of a world leader, and it’s going to say, “Well, I have some ideas about that.”

Kevin Roose

Oh, God.

So I think most people agree that the assassination prediction market is, you know, out of bounds and is a bad idea for lots of reasons. But I think there are still a lot of gray areas around these questions about conflict and war and politics. The risk here is that these prediction markets have gotten so popular so quickly, with so little regulatory oversight, that it is just kind of legal to do a bunch of stuff on them that it’s not legal to do in the regular stock market.

Casey Newton

Yeah. Well, you mentioned that some lawmakers have talked about introducing legislation. My experience is that that kind of legislation typically doesn’t go anywhere. What, if anything, do we know about what is going to happen as this war continues to unfold in Iran when it comes to these prediction markets?

Kevin Roose

I mean, I think the Trump administration is very unlikely to do anything to stop the growth of prediction markets. We’ve already seen them signal, via these regulatory actions that they’ve dropped against Polymarket, that they are not going to take a firm line against these prediction markets. We’ve also seen them adding members of the Trump family to their advisory boards. So I think all of these prediction markets are becoming entangled with the administration in ways that are going to make it very hard for them to do anything. But I certainly expect Democratic lawmakers to stand up and say, “What the hell are we enabling here? Why are we allowing people to bet on the assassination of world leaders or the outcomes of a war in Iran?” This just feels all incredibly fraught to me.

Casey Newton

Hmm. My fear is that we’re in a sort of time race, where, if Democrats were able to somehow advance some legislation, maybe they win some seats in the midterms, maybe they retake the presidency, maybe sometime within the next few years they could meaningfully rein these prediction markets in. I think, though, if they continue to grow, my fear is that they will become a massive entrenched interest group, like the crypto world, and they will then lobby to ensure that Democrats and Republicans both feel like they have a vested interest in these things sticking around. So my fear is that if we’re to do anything about some of these excesses we’ve been talking about today, it needs to happen soon, or otherwise platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket might just have too much money for that to happen.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I have a proposed rule for these prediction markets.

Casey Newton

What’s that?

Kevin Roose

Which is that you should have to go to a physical place, like you do for a casino.

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

I think that putting this stuff on people’s phones and making it super easy for them to do it is a mistake. If you want to go bet on the war in Iran, you should have to go to a seedy OTB betting place to do it. You should have to put in some effort. It should not be as easy as whipping out your phone.

Casey Newton

All right. Well, it’s very interesting, Kevin. I predict we’re not going to try that.

Kevin Roose

I know. I also predict we’re not going to try that. But it’s a good idea.

Casey Newton

People should listen to me. When we come back, slop, collaborate, and listen. YouTube is back with a disturbing new invention.

5. Kids Slop Review

Kevin Roose

All right, Casey. Well, it’s time to look at some kids’ slop.

Casey Newton

Yeah, Kev, we have recently been alerted to the fact that YouTube has been beset by a bunch of AI-generated slop for toddlers, and it’s time to take a look and see what we’re dealing with.

Kevin Roose

My colleague at The New York Times, Ariella Leka, has a new story about this called How AI-Generated Videos Are Distorting Your Child’s YouTube Feed, and I read the story. I loved it. I thought, “I’ve got to see some of this slop for myself.” So today, let’s take a look at this emerging new genre of AI slop directed at kids with a new installment of The Hard Fork Review of Slop.

Guest

The Hard Fork Review of Slop.

Kevin Roose

All right. What do we have up first? First is a video about the alphabet. Do you know the alphabet?

Casey Newton

I keep meaning to learn it.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

Let me—

Kevin Roose

Let’s see how the AI-generated alphabet videos are doing.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Guest

Kids TV. ABC farm animals.

Kevin Roose

So far, so good.

Guest

A is for alpaca. A, alpaca. Mm-mm-mm.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Guest

E is for—

Casey Newton

Why are they being squirted out of a little paint bottle?

Guest

C is for sea cat. Meow, meow, meow.

Kevin Roose

Oh, I’m deeply uncomfortable with this.

Guest

D is for duck. Quack, quack, quack.

Kevin Roose

I'm going to have to answer so many questions from my 3-year-old about why ducks come out of toothpaste tubes.

Casey Newton

Yeah, this is—if you're 3 years old, you need to know this. That is not how a duck is made. So this video depicts the alphabet, showing a series of animals whose names begin with a letter. And then a hand holding, I guess, a tube of paint squirts out a little dollop of gross goo that then transforms surreally into an animal while demented SLOP children sing the name of the animal in the background.

Kevin Roose

Mm-hmm.

Casey Newton

Yes, like if you've ever seen the TV show Alex Mack from the '90s on Nickelodeon, where she assembles herself out of goo on the floor. It's sort of like that, but for animals.

Kevin Roose

That one was a little before my time, I'm afraid, but I'll research that one back in the archives. In any case, a very strange one. Let's take a look at this next video, Kevin.

What do we have now?

Casey Newton

I believe we're going to see some animals appearing out of colorful clouds.

Guest

I is for impala. Green impala says boing, boing, boing. Joing, joing, joing. J is for jackal. Yellow jackal says ahoo, ahoo, ahoo. Hoo, hoo, hoo.

Kevin Roose

Oh, boy.

Guest

K is for kudu. Pink kudu says spin, spin, spin. Mm, mm, mm. L is for lion. Purple lion says roar, roar, roar.

Kevin Roose

He's rolling the Rs on his roars.

Guest

Colorfulness all around.

Kevin Roose

Why is the other animal a doctor? Why are they running toward the camera? Why is the kudu pink?

Casey Newton

And what is a kudu? Now, I have to say, I'm a little older than the target age for these videos, but I'm learning things myself.

Kevin Roose

This is for you.

Casey Newton

I'm learning. So this video shows another series of animals, each one connected to a letter of the alphabet. But this one uses a trope of having this doctor figure inject these animals with color, which—

Kevin Roose

And the doctor is also an animal.

Casey Newton

And the doctor is also an animal.

Kevin Roose

Is this anti-vax propaganda?

Casey Newton

Well, the thing is, whoever is making the SLOP knows that needles are scary to children, so this is effectively just an engagement hack, right? The kid is going to watch the injection because the kid is afraid of needles. So this is just one of these little miniature insidious ways that these SLOP makers grab the attention of kids: by showing them something scary in order to hypnotize them into continuing to watch the SLOP.

Kevin Roose

It does teach the valuable lesson that giving injections to children does result in them turning into pink kudus and running toward the camera. So all children need to learn that lesson eventually.

Casey Newton

All right. This next one, Kevin, shows animals turning into armored vehicles, trucks, and planes. This is going to show once again that a key theme in SLOP for kids in 2026 is the transformation of animals.

Guest

Q is for quail. Quail chirp, chirp, chirp.

Kevin Roose

Oh, wow. We got sort of mecha quail.

Guest

R is for rhino. R, rhino snorts, snorts, snorts—

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Guest

Snorts. S is for snake. S, snake hisses. Q, R, S, T. Safari animals say.

Kevin Roose

I wonder if that's a licensed use of the Thomas the Tank Engine IP.

Okay. Unfortunately—

Casey Newton

Looked like fun.

Kevin Roose

That one slapped for me. My kid would be super into that, and I must never show him that.

Casey Newton

This one reminds me of cartoons that I watched as a kid, where there was a lot of Transformers transforming, and so I can understand why a lot of little kids might like that one. But this is making me realize that another reason why SLOP makers love the alphabet is because they can just stitch together a bunch of very short clips.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

And, of course, most of the AI video generators that we have at this moment can only generate clips of up to a few seconds. So the alphabet just becomes a perfect way to stitch together all of that into one piece that still—

Kevin Roose

Great point.

Casey Newton

At least has some coherence.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I mean, I guess I can see a world in which this stuff is not actually that harmful. Maybe it is going to teach some kids the alphabet. But it is just so weird. And it strikes me as: Why? We already had a lot of videos teaching kids the alphabet. Why are people doing this?

Casey Newton

But also, listen, I'm no child neurologist, but I wonder about the consequences of essentially just creating images that are designed to overstimulate a child. You know what I mean? At least when you're watching a normal cartoon, there could be moments of relative calm, or a story might unfold over a few minutes. When you're just showing raw visual stimuli and bombarding a kid with it, it just doesn't seem like it's probably that good for them.

Kevin Roose

This is how I know you do not have a child—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

—in the year of our Lord 2026, because if you go onto Cocomelon or any of the other extremely popular children's programs, they are essentially just this. It's a series of very short clips. Maybe they do one song, and then it cuts away to a different song. It cuts away to a different song. It is these same sorts of hyperstimulating environments. So I'm not saying that any of this is good. I'm just saying that we have crossed the Rubicon a while ago, and we are now in the land of hyperstimulating children's entertainment. And the big difference, to my mind, is now that it's just easier and cheaper to create this stuff.

Casey Newton

Listen, this is my takeaway. When I have my child, which I do hope to do, the only visual stimulation that I'm going to allow them is a pile of sticks.

Kevin Roose

An Etch A Sketch?

Casey Newton

They can make their own fun with the pile of sticks. But we're not going down this road, Kevin.

Casey Newton

All right. Why don't we wrap up with a lullaby about animated children tucking themselves into beds made out of fruit?

Hmm. Love a fruit bed.

Casey Newton

What did you call me?

Guest

Princess Blondie in her strawberry bed. Soft dreams around her head and banana bright, swaying gently through the night. Orson snoozes in kiwi green. Elsie fuzz so calm and clean. Super Boy in his orange glow. Drifts to sleep all warm and slow.

Kevin Roose

Okay, we've got a girl with a crown going into a bed made of strawberries.

Banana bed.

Ariella Leka

Banana bright, swaying gently through the night.

Kevin Roose

Kiwi bed.

Casey Newton

You know, this is just another one that feels a little more surreal than I am comfortable with. It's like, what is the child supposed to conclude from any of it? It just sort of seems designed to confuse children more than to educate or even really entertain them.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. And there have been, I will say, a few videos in here where I'm like, “Oh, my kid would like that,” but I don't like that he would like that. I don't want him watching stuff that's just a bunch of animals driving buses or lying in fruit beds. It's—

Casey Newton

Look, kids like lots of things that are bad for them.

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

That's why we don't let them use cocaine.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Well, now that we've seen the videos, I feel like we are armed and ready to have the conversation about what they all mean, so let's bring in my colleague Ariella Leka.

Casey Newton

I don't know. I feel like I need to cleanse first. Maybe go read a play by Shakespeare or something.

Kevin Roose

Just go watch an episode of Bluey. Very heartwarming. Ariella Leka, welcome to Hard Fork.

Ariella Leka

Thank you so much for having me.

Kevin Roose

I wanted to just ask, first of all, how did you get interested in this? How did you learn about this? Did you get a tip from a toddler submitting things through The New York Times' confidential tip process? How did this come onto your radar?

Ariella Leka

Yeah, so no toddlers were involved in the making of this story. We had some ethical concerns there about showing them these videos repeatedly. But I started by getting interested in this because there is so much AI slop on all of our social media feeds, regardless of the platform, and I was interested in learning more about how this content is being presented to children and how it's being moderated.

So where do many children watch media? It's YouTube. I started by looking at channels that parents approve of—channels like Ms. Rachel and Bluey, which are considered higher quality and more thoughtful—and other popular channels like CoComelon. I said, “Well, if I click on a CoComelon video and I am a toddler, and I look at the recommended videos right next to that video, what sort of videos would I be recommended?”

We focused on YouTube Shorts because a lot of these AI tools default to this vertical format, and so we just started scrolling through the feed and making a note of the different videos we were seeing. One of my colleagues actually coded a tool where I wasn't really interacting with the screen, so I wouldn't influence the algorithm, and I was just scrolling down, and it was making a note of all the different links I was seeing. We later analyzed these videos frame by frame to determine which videos were AI-generated.

Kevin Roose

And were you using regular YouTube or YouTube Kids?

Ariella Leka

So we started looking at regular YouTube in a private browser, because a lot of parents tend to put on their own YouTube accounts for their children. But then we also looked through YouTube Kids, because it is a more controlled environment with content that's supposed to be approved for children.

Kevin Roose

And when you started this process, what were your expectations? And then how much AI-generated stuff did you wind up seeing as a proportion of the total?

Ariella Leka

So I think, especially when I was watching channels like Ms. Rachel and Bluey, I was expecting to see content that would be more in the lines of those programs, right? More Bluey Shorts, and I wasn't really seeing that. I was surprised just about how much AI-generated content was being recommended. In 1 session alone—

Kevin Roose

Hmm.

Ariella Leka

In 1 15-minute session while we were scrolling, more than 40% of the videos were AI-generated.

Kevin Roose

Wow. And how are you determining that? Is there a detection system that you're plugging these things into?

Casey Newton

Yeah, the detection system is called looking at the videos.

Kevin Roose

Well, no, I'm saying, if you have a video of an alpaca getting squeezed out of a paint tube, that's very clearly not photorealistic, but it could be made using some CGI software or something like that.

Casey Newton

I suppose, yes. I suppose.

Kevin Roose

How did you determine that this was AI?

Ariella Leka

Right. Some of these videos were a little more obvious, but we looked at them frame by frame and tried to look for inconsistencies. In some cases, the objects were just appearing in the background. There was text in the background that was distorted. If there was an animal in the background, it would morph into something else.

Some of the videos were actually labeled as synthetic media, even though they were animated. Then we would also look at the YouTube channel and get a sense of what sort of content they had been posting in the last few years. Even some of the channels that had been around before the last 2 years, when this technology really improved, were making very simple, low-quality animation that looked nothing like what they had been posting the last few months.

Kevin Roose

Now, Ariella, I have done a lot of reporting on YouTube, but it's been a few years. What are their actual policies like today on this kind of content?

Ariella Leka

So I sent them a few channels as examples, and I asked them what their policy is around flagging AI content that's being made for children, and that includes animated content. They told me that content creators are required to label content that is realistic-looking.

In some cases, we saw that creators weren't labeling the content, and I'm referring to videos of animals displaying behaviors that those animals don't do, like elephants doing gymnastic maneuvers on a tightrope. Those videos, for example, were not labeled as synthetic media. Some creators were labeling the animated videos, but it's not part of YouTube's policy.

So really, the burden is falling on parents, especially parents who may not want their child to watch AI-generated media, to determine, okay, what sort of video is this? And not only that, but you have to click through the video, and then you see the synthetic media label. When it comes to kids' content on YouTube, YouTube doesn't allow comments. So sometimes when there's an AI-generated video, you'll have people in the comments say, "This is AI," and in this case, parents can't really talk amongst themselves as to what the video is.

Kevin Roose

Has there been any backlash yet that we've seen from parents against these kinds of videos? Are some parents upset by what they're seeing?

Ariella Leka

Yeah. We came across several Reddit forums where people were asking how to get around this AI slop for kids, whether there was a filter on YouTube. Some parents recommended making a playlist. Other parents were like, "Get off YouTube altogether." And I think a lot of it is also going to fall on parents to closely supervise what kids are watching since the algorithm is pushing so much of this content.

Casey Newton

Right. Although, of course, the whole point of YouTube is that it's what you show your kids so that you don't have to spend time with them, right? Not in a mean way, but maybe you have to cook dinner.

Ariella Leka

Right.

Casey Newton

Right? But—

Ariella Leka

Parents are busy.

Casey Newton

Yeah, if parents were sitting down to watch YouTube with their children, we would not be in this situation.

Ariella Leka

Right.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, and I'll say, as the parent of an almost 4-year-old, the couple of times that I've found him watching something like this because he went onto the YouTube Kids app when he wasn't supposed to or something, my feeling about it is not, "This is damaging my child." It's just, "This is so bad."

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

The quality is just so bad. I wonder if you think, Ariella, if there's any evidence. What do we know about the actual effects of this on kids? Is the worry that it's actually harming them, or is the worry that there's just better stuff they could be watching?

Ariella Leka

So there are a lot of factors to consider. These videos contain extraneous effects, and we know that when videos contain all these bedazzling elements, kids can learn as well. They're also devoid of a narrative arc, and it's really beneficial for kids to watch content with a beginning, middle, and end, with characters they can relate to and that they're familiar with, watching content that uses short phrases that they can understand and doesn't feature these abstract concepts. Worst case, a lot of these videos are fantastical, and that could be cognitively overloading for the child.

When it comes to short-form content, experts say that for children under 5, we know their attention systems are still developing. So it's hard for them to follow rapid changes. And it really puts a heavy burden on children to process that information, especially when we see this more realistic, fantastical content of animals showing bizarre behaviors.

Casey Newton

When I was growing up, Kevin, in the 1900s, I would watch He-Man.

Kevin Roose

Mm.

Casey Newton

Remember He-Man?

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

It was a cartoon about a gay guy who had a sword and rode a tiger around. And as a young—

Kevin Roose

Was he gay canonically?

Casey Newton

Well, I think not canonically—but read between the lines.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

Okay? Read between the lines.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

And, as a young gay kid, I could see that and relate to that, and yes, the stories were fantastical. But to Ariella's point, there was a beginning and a middle and an end.

Kevin Roose

Right.

Casey Newton

And it didn't exactly teach me in the ways of the world, but maybe told me something about storytelling and narrative, and it wasn't just raw flashing shapes and colors.

Kevin Roose

Yes. I remember, before I had a kid, having this argument with people at YouTube about YouTube Kids because I think there was discussion and concern even back in 2017 or 2018 about these weird videos. They weren't AI-generated at the time, but they were just weird CoComelon rip-offs.

And I remember saying to these YouTube people, "You guys have to change the way that you do this. Instead of just default allowing channels to serve content to very young children, you have to set up a whitelist where, if you prove that your stories have a beginning, middle, and end, and there's some thought being put into them, you are allowed to be on YouTube Kids. And if you're not, if you're just some content farm that's churning out CoComelon rip-offs, you're not going to be allowed on."

So do you get the sense, Ariella, that there's any concern or consideration of this at YouTube? Or are they basically just like, "You know, we got bigger fish to fry"?

Ariella Leka

I mean, these videos and these channels are recommended to me multiple times, and I've been looking at these videos since November.

Casey Newton

And what has it done to your brain? I bet you know your alphabet.

Arielle Pardes

I do, yeah. The alphabet and those songs really get stuck in your head, right?

Casey Newton

Yeah. Trust me, I know.

Arielle Pardes

And then it's so fascinating to me how much more these videos are recommended to me than more thoughtful content like PBS Kids, for example. PBS Kids also puts out Shorts, but I was seeing more of this than PBS Kids.

Casey Newton

I mean, just to echo Kevin's question, this has gotten me thinking about Elsagate, right?

Arielle Pardes

Right.

Casey Newton

This 2017 controversy where parents see a lot of really surreal content on YouTube, and they get very upset. It seems like we have not seen that kind of backlash yet, and I'm wondering, is it because we just feel like the content is actually better here in some ways, or are most parents just not actually aware of the volume of slop that might be being served to their kids?

Ariella Leka

Because so many of these videos are animated, it may not be obvious to some parents that these are—

AI-generated, but we were working in a more contained environment. Elsewhere on YouTube, there are so many videos featuring popular characters that children like in very violent scenarios. There's this show called Masha and the Bear, and I remember I typed in Masha and came across videos of Masha's stomach being cut open. That channel was putting up these videos, and YouTube didn't take them down until I linked to one of them in my story.

Kevin Roose

Wow.

Arielle Pardes

I don't know if any of you know children who are obsessed with that KPop Demon Hunters film, but there are so many horrible videos featuring those characters. Again, it's nonsensical. Sometimes the characters are pregnant, and those videos are all over YouTube as well if you type in those characters' names.

Kevin Roose

And, by the way, that was the exact scandal of Elsagate: people were seeing Elsa from Frozen pregnant all over YouTube. So this truly is just a sequel to Elsagate, and I think it's interesting that it has flown under the radar until your story, Arielle.

Ariella Leka

Right. Before, you had to have some sort of animation skills to do that, but now anyone can do this in a few minutes, so we're going to be seeing more of this content.

Kevin Roose

And, again, what is so insidious here is that the people who are making these videos are counting on the fact that regular kids are going to go searching for KPop Demon Hunters and Masha and the Bear, and they are unwittingly just going to be served this slop of the poor bear getting cut open and the pregnant demon hunter just through the recommendation algorithm. This is where YouTube's responsibility lies.

Ariella Leka

Yes.

Kevin Roose

Right? This is where YouTube should be saying, “We're actually not going to show this incredibly disturbing stuff to kids.”

Casey Newton

Yeah. I would say that among the parents of young children that I know, very few of them let their kids watch YouTube, even YouTube Kids, for this exact reason: you might start with Masha and the Bear. You might start with a KPop Demon Hunters video. You might start with Bluey or CoComelon. But you go away for 10 minutes to cook dinner, and you come back and they're on their third hop from the recommendation, and they're watching some weird AI-generated thing with Spider-Man on the surgery table or something. And it's like, what are we doing here?

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Because it turns out that all of these recommendation algorithms work exactly the same way. They find the video that is the closest to going over the line, and they find that it gets more engagement than any other, and so that's what shows up in the feed.

Casey Newton

Right.

Kevin Roose

Right? So how many times are we going to have to revisit this story?

Casey Newton

Yes.

Kevin Roose

It really depresses me, honestly.

Casey Newton

Arielle, until platforms like YouTube take more action on this, what can parents do in the short term? I mean, if you're going to let your kid watch YouTube or YouTube Kids, is there anything you can do to toggle off the AI slop, or do you just have to make peace with it?

Ariella Leka

In terms of filtering it out, there isn't an option to do that right now. In January, YouTube announced that they were going to add some controls where parents can set time limits on YouTube Shorts. We're seeing a lot of this AI content in YouTube Shorts, so that might be an option. But—

Kevin Roose

They could call it SlopWatch. It's like a stopwatch, but for slop. I just wonder if all of this is a losing battle. I feel like—

Casey Newton

Kevin Roose, do not bring your nihilism into the recording studio today.

Kevin Roose

Oh, well, just look at what is happening to older children with Tung Tung Tung Sahur and all the AI slop from TikTok. I just feel like we're seeing old people falling for AI slop on Facebook, and middle-aged people falling for it on X and Instagram. It just feels like we're creating this lifelong pipeline of whatever slop is going to be most engaging to you.

Well, I'm glad you brought that up, because that is the thought that I'm having as we wrap up: while right now we're talking about the concerns we have for kids, I think that older teens and adults wind up having the same issue, which is that they open TikTok or Instagram Reels and see something that is designed to hypnotize them as well. It might not be colors and shapes and the alphabet, but the basic idea does seem to be just to turn your brain off and experience the raw visual stimuli for as long as we can get you to.

Kevin Roose

Yes. Well, Ariella, fascinating story. Thank you so much for doing this digging and watching all of these children's videos so that I don't have to—and so that I can protect my child from them.

Ariella Leka

Thank you so much—

Kevin Roose

Appreciate it.

Ariella Leka

For having me.

Casey Newton

Yes.

Kevin Roose

Way to take one for the team.

Casey Newton

Yes. Ariella, you really did take one for the team on this one, I have to say.

Kevin Roose

All right, thanks so much.

Ariella Leka

Thanks.

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