价值与动量
- 演讲者认为，进入买入区间前，市场还会进一步下跌。 Value & Momentum 的判断是：市场“已经触及比特币不上涨时，市场还能继续上涨或维持稳定的时间上限”，买方力量已接近耗尽——NASDAQ上涨40个基点，黄金上涨1.5%，但BTC仍下跌近3%——因此他希望看到市场向10万美元附近快速清洗后再重新入场；他同时指出，9.5万美元“有点难到”，因为买方会在10万美元上方介入。Jonah的对称性测算也指向同一位置：4月关税暴跌从峰值到低点跌了30%，这次“没有催化剂”的清算行情最多只应达到其三分之二，“大概率更接近一半”——15%对应约10.5万美元，20%对应约9.9万美元。收尾一句：“10.5万美元见。”
- Solana从230美元涨到248美元，完全由300万枚 Solana 上线所驱动——当行情完全由未平仓合约推动时，就必须开始感到担忧。 Avi此前标出的250-260美元做空交易奏效；总未平仓合约4天前在330亿美元见顶，此后已缩水20-30亿美元。DAT的判断是，这又是2021年链上激励驱动的轮动——“来自旧DAT的回收资金”，而不是新增资本；历史上，没有比特币配合的山寨币超额表现通常只能持续2-3周（SOL大约撑了6周），现在时钟已经走完。
- Aster的分歧是本期最重要的信号。 Avi想做第二轮交易——35%回撤后在约1美元附近小仓买入，涨到2美元卖出，因为那些在“没人进场”时暴涨的资产，会在回调时制造FOMO。Jonah则称其为“一座核废料池”，又一个Trumpcoin：没有统计显著的收入，却有24亿美元FDV，“你买的是一张图表”，而Trump相关买家已经亏损60%-90%。两人都指出其刷量数学存在问题：Aster的BTC未平仓合约只有 Hyperliquid 的1/20，但交易量却达到一半——“这个比例完全说不通……可能就是欺诈”。Jonah说：“我敢打赌，6个月后我们不会再谈Aster。”
- 追踪传统金融的猫薄荷，而不是加密原生泡沫。 过去BTC下跌1%时，Galaxy常常下跌6%；今天BTC下跌2.5%，Galaxy却只下跌43个基点——这证明新资金正在托住加密股票，而不是代币。稳定币正处于“一场复兴”中（Maple的syrup USD池在约30秒内吸收了约2亿美元），Avi预计 Plasma 上线后会“表现极好”，因为传统金融资金会大举涌入。两人都预计即将迎来一轮加密股票行情；Avi的历史教训是，FTX之后他卖掉了矿企和GBTC，换取约2倍收益，之后它们却涨到了10倍。
- DAT崩盘交易剧本已经启动。 Nakamoto（David Bailey的DAT）是“第一场崩盘”，目前以1.33美元交易，较净资产值折价约35%，而内部人价格为1.12美元（仍处于锁定期）；由于已经接近内部人的成本价，它可能迎来逼空或反弹。交易方法是：买入由能干团队运营、不会错过票息支付并被迫卖出的DAT，趁折价买入，等待其回到面值。BitMine（Tom Lee）尚未崩盘，但“某种程度上这是不可避免的”——而且它会是更好的买入对象，因为管理确实到位。
- 犯罪季是主线，而且可以交易。 在Trump与Elon的唇语片段传出“我想你了”的次日早晨，Value & Momentum大幅增持Tesla；Intel的10%持股交易让他认识到，只要美国政府介入一只股票，“他们就会确保这只股票上涨”。交易标的是：BNB（如果永续合约在美国合法，Binance将是最大受益者）、XRP——“Ripple本身就是一家完全没用、只会卖XRP的公司”，但随着犯罪季进入后半程，业务会改善——以及比特币的软底，因为Trump“已经把自己的声誉押在加密货币上”。
- 进入这轮清洗的策略是：在10天横盘后，不要逆着第一波走势交易。 117此前是一个距离124和107等距的对称无人区，如今已经变成清晰的止损位，因此在价值买家“至少在10万美元附近”出现前，逢高卖出是更好的交易。Jonah不会做空超过几天，因为这是一场清算，而不是FTX/Luna式的结构性重估；他正等待类似4月那样买入 Hyperliquid 和 Pump 的机会——“这两台惊人的印钞机”。
1. 分化已经兑现——买方耗尽，直到比特币重新定价
- Avi先兑现了自己上周的判断：他此前指出的加密资产下跌、股票上涨的分化“似乎正在兑现”。BTC未能突破117，ETH形成更低的高点；今天NASDAQ上涨40个基点，黄金上涨1.5%，比特币下跌近3%——“这说明买方力量差不多耗尽了”。他的结论是：“动能已经丢了，我们进入震荡模式”，现在应该等待“一次漂亮的快速清洗”——可能到10万美元，但9.5万美元“有点难到”，因为买方会在10万美元上方介入。
- Value & Momentum的结构性判断是：“我们已经触及比特币不上涨时，市场还能继续上涨或维持稳定的时间上限……你需要比特币处于一个足够有吸引力的价值水平，让人愿意放心买入——而我们可能还没到那里。”
- 仓位建议保持原有的条件强度：如果仓位已经打满，就减一点；如果上周已经离场，就继续观望；如果非买不可，就小仓试探那些跌得最惨、自己又看好的标的，比如 Aerodrome，以及“因为一直很强”的BNB。
2. Jonah的冷静反驳：这是充满动量交易者的区间，不是顶部
- Jonah拒绝恐慌：每次测试局部高点，都会吸引杠杆资金押注突破，“一旦没有突破，人们就会像今天这样被清算……然后市场清空筹码，迎来下一轮上涨”。资金费率已经偏高，总未平仓合约4天前在330亿美元见顶，此后减少了20-30亿美元——“没什么比这更值得分析的了：这是一个动量交易者主导的震荡市场，所以所有人都在被来回收割。”
- 资金为什么不会离开加密市场：今年标普500的夏普比率“可能高于2”，从4月低点以来“高于3”——“感觉它每4天就有3天上涨。在这样的背景下，你怎么可能因为把钱放在比特币里而感到懊恼？”
- 但他认为“山寨币马上会遭到相当猛烈的打击”——这也正是机会：在市场“继续向上搭顶”之前，先列好购物清单，牛派标的包括HYPE、Aerodrome和ENA。他用自己的情绪做测试：“我会在这里买山寨币吗？我的直觉是什么？现在我不想去接下落的刀。”
- 上周的铀矿推荐也值得记上一笔：URA一周上涨14%，成了“一座彻底爆发的boom boom小币赌场”，目前没有止盈。
3. Solana的上涨来自未平仓合约，DAT是2021年那套资金回收游戏
- SOL交易复盘如下：200美元做多，目标240-260美元，250-260美元做空；从230美元推升到248美元，“完全由300万枚 Solana 上线所驱动”——“当行情完全由未平仓合约推动时，就必须开始有点担心。”
- DAT框架是这样的：2021年每条新链都会推出激励计划，资金从第一条链轮到第二条，再轮到第三条。“进入 Solana DAT 的资金不一定是新钱，而是来自旧DAT的回收资金”——此前赚到钱的人，把资金滚入下一个项目。“显然，这不是世界上最可持续的模式。”
- 历史规律是：比特币横盘时，山寨币的超额表现通常只能持续“2-3周，最多也许3-4周”。Solana撑了大约6周，已经比通常更久，但上限终究是上限。
4. Aster：Avi交易FOMO，Jonah闻到了欺诈的味道
- Avi看好第二轮行情：它上涨太快，“很多人最终都被留在场外”，这“让它成为一个不错的交易标的”——35%回撤后，他会“在1美元附近小仓买入，争取在2美元卖出”。他对终局并不抱幻想：CZ支持的永续合约DEX会“在阳光下风光一阵，然后就慢慢死掉”——交易机会在于首轮上涨、随后下跌，以及为错过首轮行情的人准备的第二轮上涨。
- Jonah拒绝参与，理由很完整：他错过 Hyperliquid 和 Aster，是因为“我仍然没有一个好的思维框架来理解为什么世界还需要另一家交易所……叫我老古董吧”。在24亿美元FDV、没有达到统计显著性的收入数据的情况下，“你是凭感觉买入……你买的是一张图表”——“这只是另一个Trumpcoin”，其波动性买家已经亏损60%-90%。“我敢打赌，6个月后我们不会再谈Aster。”
- 随后两人都把注意力转向数据：Aster主页声称未平仓合约为2.58亿美元，总交易量为5,320亿美元；单看比特币，其未平仓合约为2.36亿美元、日交易量22亿美元，而 Hyperliquid 的对应数字是38亿美元和48亿美元——“未平仓合约只有对方的1/20，交易量却有一半。这完全说不通……可能就是欺诈”。更荒唐的是，网站在“perpetual”旁边宣传高杠杆——“他们想压过我们……为了表示尊重，应该直接写999倍。”
- Jonah的元层面教训是：“这个市场被低估的能力，是保持耐心……这就是终极闪亮物，会把你从优质长期仓位上吸引开。”
5. 追踪传统金融的猫薄荷：稳定币和加密股票才有新钱
- Jonah称稳定币正在迎来“一场复兴”——Stable、Plasma和Maple都在其中，Maple的syrup USD池“差不多30秒就填满了”，规模约2亿美元。Avi说，Plasma“对传统金融投资者来说简直是猫薄荷……我认为它会表现极好”，一旦上线并超越 Hyperliquid 的覆盖范围，传统金融资金就会“大举涌入”。
- Jonah给出了同一信号的具体例子：Galaxy过去就像“Mike Novogratz的Bitcoin在加拿大上市”——BTC下跌1%时，它会下跌6%。今天BTC下跌2.5%，Galaxy却只下跌43个基点。“市场已经把新钱从哪里来告诉你了”——新交易者在托住加密股票，而XRP、HYPE和ETH下跌4%-6%。
- Avi的自白为这套判断盖了章：FTX之后，他把大量资金投入矿企和GBTC，后来“全都以大约2倍收益卖掉了，而这些矿企后来都涨到了10倍……这种情况太多了”。两人都预计，加密股票“未来几个月会表现得非常好”。
6. 几个月前就计划好的DAT崩盘交易已经到来
- Nakamoto——“David Bailey的DAT”——已经“彻底崩盘”。Value & Momentum认为，原因包括管理不善、股票大量涌入市场，以及无法继续融资。它目前较净资产值折价约35%，交易价格为1.33美元；一位“参与了这笔交易的人”提供的信息显示，内部人价格为1.12美元且仍处于锁定期。这个价格已经足够接近内部人成本，可能迎来“一次漂亮的小型逼空或反弹”。
- Jonah的框架是：“挑选那些不会错过票息支付、不会在折价交易时被迫卖出加密资产的DAT，买入它们，然后希望它们有足够的持久力回到面值。”核心仍是分析团队和财务状况。
- Value & Momentum进一步指出，BitMine（Tom Lee）还没有像Nakamoto那样崩盘，但“某种程度上，它迟早会崩——而那会是更好的买入机会”，因为它的运营确实更好。“我喜欢几个月前规划好的交易，后来开始给你提供入场机会。”
7. 犯罪季是交易主线，也为比特币提供底部支撑
- Jonah提出Luna问题：如果可疑项目越来越可疑，犯罪季会不会像2022年5月那样，让整个加密市场重新定价？Value & Momentum认为，除非发生“真正可怕的事情”，例如彻底的退出骗局，否则不会——“在民主党政府上台之前，我看不出这是生存性风险。”
- 但犯罪季本身就是一种策略：“如果美国政府介入一只股票，他们就会确保这只股票上涨。”Intel的10%持股交易就是模板。Value & Momentum在Trump与Elon的唇语片段“我想你了”传出的当天早晨大幅增持Tesla：“很明显，Trump和Elon已经重归于好……这对股票未来6个月可能是好事。”
- 犯罪季交易组合包括BNB——“如果永续合约在美国合法，Binance将是最大受益者”；其次是 Hyperliquid，但KYC可能阻断催化剂；还有XRP——“Ripple本身就是一家完全没用、只会卖XRP的公司”，但随着犯罪季进入后半程，业务会改善——以及Galaxy。比特币本身也有一条底线：Trump“已经在某种程度上把自己的声誉押在加密货币上”，因此“比特币存在一个底部价位，到了那里，犯罪季会发力，推动比特币再次上涨”。
8. 下跌路径：不要逆着第一波走势交易，10.5万美元见
- Avi的策略是：在“横盘10天后下跌3%”的情况下，“通常不应该去逆着这种幅度较大的走势交易”。区间逻辑也已经翻转——117过去是一个对称点，距离124高点和107低点“相当接近”，因此“没有容易触发的止损位”。现在117上方已经形成清晰的止损区，所以“在这里卖出”是更好的交易。动量交易者会在更低的高点出现后退出，而“我认为价值买家至少要等到10万美元才会进场”。
- Jonah用时间维度做对称测算：4月解放日暴跌从峰值到低点跌了30%，当时存在真实催化剂；这次没有催化剂的清算行情“最多只应达到那次的三分之二，但大概率更接近一半”——15%对应约10.5万美元，20%的最大跌幅对应9.9万美元。到那时，“我们会进行和4月一样的对话：闭上眼睛，别当懦夫，买入。”
- 他把做空期限控制在几天之内——“这确实像一场清算交易，而不是Elizabeth Warren时期、FTX或Luna那种结构性重估”——同时保留弹药，等待类似4月那样买入 Hyperliquid 和可能的 Pump，“这两台惊人的印钞机。只要你耐心等待，没必要抢在最早入场。”临别时双方再次握手：“那就10.5万美元见。”“10.5万美元见。”
Value & Momentum
I think, basically, we hit the limit of how long the market can go up or stay stable without Bitcoin going up. And I think we're probably at that limit right now. Basically, I think we need a reset before we start going up again.
You need money to start flowing back into BTC. And for that to happen, I think you need Bitcoin to be at a good value level where people are comfortable buying it.
Not there yet.
Value & Momentum
And we're not necessarily there yet.
Today is a great day. Markets are red. Everything has collapsed in on itself, and people are calling yet again for a top after the move has played out. I'm sitting here reminded of what I was jawboning about on the last podcast: there's been a divergence. Maybe I was a little too quick to hop on it in the beginning.
1. Time to be Patient
Some people were like, “Hey, I think you're reading too much into something tiny happening here,” but it seems to be playing out. You've got a down day in crypto and an up day in equities, which is what happened last Monday when we recorded. I don't like it when you get a divergence like that. If a market is strong, it should have basically every reason to be strong, and it didn't.
The equity markets went up, and Bitcoin struggled for a little bit. We had some movement—we were up about 1% or so—but we couldn't crack $117,000. On ETH, the lower high that I pointed out meant that we sort of went sideways for a bit.
What we're looking at now is a solid retracement across the board. We're looking at weakness. This is kind of what we were talking about before: if Bitcoin goes down 2%, what are altcoins going to do?
Solana was a great short at the $250–$260 level, which we had talked about before. The long from $200—we were looking for $240 to $260—we got to $250, sort of tapped out there, and now it's retracing. I think we're in retrace-and-chop mode for now.
We're seeing it again today. NASDAQ is up 40 bps, and Bitcoin's down almost 3%. That's a sign that we've tapped out on buyers right now. You would think that if people were really interested in buying Bitcoin, then the correlation traders between NASDAQ and BTC and gold would be active.
Gold is up 1.5% today. It's ripping. You would think that, with all that considered, Bitcoin would be able to go up, and the answer is that it hasn't. I think we've lost momentum, and we're in chop mode.
For me, that means buying when we get a significant flush. I'm waiting for a nice flush. Maybe we hit $100,000; maybe we hit $95,000. I think $95,000 would be a little tough to hit from here, honestly, because I do think you get buyers stepping in a little above $100,000. But altcoins can get crushed here.
Basically, I think we're in wait-and-see mode. Jonah, what are you thinking here?
Yeah, I mean, you had a good call last week, and the rest of the stuff that you mentioned outside of crypto last week—Tesla, HOOD, basically equities, right?
And commodities. Don't forget my uranium pitch, which, by the way, uranium is up.
Value & Momentum
How much is URA up in the last week since you talked about it?
In the last week since I talked about it? It's up 14%.
Value & Momentum
That is ridiculous.
Let's go.
Value & Momentum
That is ridiculous. 14%. Jonah, are you taking any profits or no?
No. This is full-on boom-boom-town shitcoin. That's amazing. Uranium looks phenomenal right now, and it continues to look phenomenal. I see no reason to sell it.
Value & Momentum
Yeah, I mean, you had some good calls last week. I'll hand it to you and give credit where credit is due. Obviously, in the world of crypto, there's a lot of panic: “Oh my God, we're underperforming equities. Oh my God, it's sold off down to $112,000 from $117,000. The world is ending.”
I'm a little bit more sober and sanguine about this. I don't really think it's that bad. I think that, basically, every time we test local highs, people add a bunch of leverage, betting that it's going to break through, because that's a tried-and-tested strategy in crypto.
When it doesn't, people get liquidated, like today. Then it cleans the slate for yet another rally. I think we're just in a range-bound market, and most of the market is momentum trading. We've seen this a million times.
It happened last summer, too. It also happened during significant portions of last year, where we ranged like this for months. We had the same dialogue, where people were euphorically bullish at the highs of a tight range and absolutely melting with fear at the lows of the range.
I don't think there's anything that meaningful going on. I don't see a reason for capital to just exit crypto, especially with the broader risk-asset picture looking so bullish. If you look at ES1—the S&P 500—the Sharpe ratio since the April lows is probably above 3. Obviously, I'm cherry-picking that, but the Sharpe ratio this year is probably above 2.
It's just the most amazing investment. It feels like it goes up 3 out of every 4 days. With that in the background, how could you possibly be upset about having money in Bitcoin or altcoins?
I think it's just going to give us some opportunities. I agree with what you said. If you had some ideas or some things that you wanted to add to your shopping list—HYPE, for me, Aerodrome, and the ENA bulls out there are vocal—if there are some altcoins that you want to add, I feel like altcoins are about to get shellacked pretty hard.
I don't think this is over. Maybe you end up getting some of those great buys before we continue ripping. I don't have a specific short-term thesis on price directionality in crypto. It feels like a fruitless exercise to analyze why the entire space is down or up, other than just looking at leverage.
If we pull up Velo Data—let me see here, velo.xyz. I'm sure it's on the Blockworks dashboard, too. Funding got a little toppy on the highs, and then it just rinsed out.
Where's open interest? Same story. It's off over the last week. It went from, I guess, 4 days ago, when it peaked at a total of $33 billion in open interest. Now we're down $2–$3 billion from there, just in a couple of days. People are liquidating.
It's really just that. I don't think there's much more to analyze than this: it's a market of momentum traders, and it's ranging, so everybody's just getting chopped up. That's kind of my take.
Yeah, and I think you can see this in Solana specifically as well. You knew it was about time to get out once open interest started coming off a decent amount. Basically, you had a pretty sizable move in open interest at the highs, when Solana was trading at $230 and going to $248.
That move was entirely predicated on 3 million SOL coming online, which is actually a sizable amount. When moves are entirely driven by open interest, you have to start getting a little bit worried.
I think what I was catching on to last week, and what we were just starting to see the beginning of, is that the market has been tapped out of buyers at these levels. The DAT lost the ability to plow in a meaningful amount of capital. Even the Solana DAT—a lot of that was front-run by open interest itself.
Obviously, there was real buying, and that's why Solana is higher today than it was 3 weeks ago. But it wasn't necessarily the most sustainable buying, because what was happening is reminiscent of 2021. It's the same capital chasing slightly different opportunities.
In 2021, what you saw was that new chains would launch their EVM version of themselves, and then they'd launch some sort of incentive program to attract capital. It would happen one by one. Chain 1 would launch an incentive program, and all the capital would flood there. Then Chain 2 would launch an incentive program, and all the capital would leave Chain 1 to go to Chain 2.
Then Chain 3 would launch an incentive program, and all the capital would leave Chain 2 to go to Chain 3. That's a little bit of what's happening in crypto with these DATs. The money coming into the Solana DAT isn't necessarily new money.
It's recycled money from old DATs. It's people who made money in the first DAT rolling their money into the next one. Obviously, that's not the most sustainable thing in the world. When the leader starts to show weakness, it'll bring the rest of the market down.
Value & Momentum
You can’t. I think the crypto market has shown us over and over that when altcoins are popping off hard and Bitcoin is not, you get alt season. But you don’t last in that alt season for an extended period of time; that level of outperformance doesn’t last.
I’ve said in the past that’s probably anywhere from 2 to 3 weeks, or maybe 3 to 4 weeks max. If we look at how long Solana was seriously outperforming Bitcoin, it was a little bit longer this time. It was about 6 weeks of outperformance, but I think basically we hit the limit of how long the market can go up or stay stable without Bitcoin going up.
I think we’re probably at that limit right now. So, basically, I think we need a reset before we start going up again. You need money to start flowing back into BTC, and for that to happen, I think you need Bitcoin to be at a good value level where people are comfortable buying it.
We’re not there yet.
Value & Momentum
And we’re not necessarily there yet.
So, it does feel like we could get a pretty significant flush.
Value & Momentum
Correct. That’s my take. So, if I’m you and I’m trading, like I said last week, hopefully you sized down a little bit last week and you got more on the sidelines. Maybe you were a little bit more concentrated in some of the better stuff. Maybe you took on that BNB long that we were talking about that did pretty well.
But I wouldn’t be rushing in right now. If you’re fully allocated, I would cut a little bit. If you got out last week, you did a great job. Continue to stay out, I think, for a little bit.
If you really want to, you can nibble on some of the stuff that’s been really nuked if you like it. Maybe you want to buy a little bit of AERO. Maybe you can get that. I think, actually, BNB could be another interesting thing here just because it’s been so strong.
But basically, I would be waiting here. This is a time to be patient.
Yeah. I mean, I always like to buy Bitcoin, so buying dips is always easier to conceptualize when it’s denominated in BTC. I’m always like, “Oh yeah, sure, $112,000, why not?” But then when I ask—I think the real test of sentiment is: would I buy alts here? How does that feel? How does that feel in my gut? Right now, I wouldn’t want to catch the falling knife in any of these alts.
Well, I guess it depends on your alt, right? One alt that looks really good right now, which has been doing very well, is Aster. You’ve been paying attention to this?
Yeah. And we should talk about that quick one. I’ve obviously missed Aster for the same reason I missed Hyperliquid, despite having analyzed them both. I still don’t have a good mental framework for understanding why the world needs another exchange. I still can’t wrap my head around it. Call me dumb. Call me a boomer. I just don’t get it.
So, I’m okay missing some of these trades at the earliest possible phases. Why does the world need another perp DEX right now? Other than, “Oh, it’s CZ-sponsored, and there are the right KOLs around this, and oh look, other people are making money and screenshotting their wallets and posting it online.” What’s the actual reason why this should sustain the way that Hyperliquid did?
The thing that people sometimes forget—and this is no shade, no shade to Hyperliquid, right?—is that perp DEXs actually have a long history. If you go back 4 years, everyone was talking about how GMX was going to win. It was absolutely going to win.
Now, with that being said, no perp DEX has gotten to the size of Hyperliquid, and Hyperliquid’s team is extremely competent. They’re very good at what they do, and basically no other perp DEX has been able to even come close to what they’ve accomplished.
But history has shown that it’s possible to very easily steal away users if you provide similar levels of liquidity, a similar level of product, and a similar level of experience to the DEX itself, right? It’s very easy to click withdraw and then deposit. It takes 15 seconds to get off Hyperliquid and go somewhere else.
Okay, maybe not 15 seconds, because you have to wait for the bridge off of Arbitrum. But it doesn’t take more than half an hour, and it doesn’t take more than 15 seconds of active clicking to get off. So, it’s not particularly hard, is what I’m saying.
So, when you have something like Aster come out, I think immediately the bells have to go off in your head. It’s like, okay, well, if this product is backed by the number 1 exchange in the world, by CZ, then it’s probably going to have a moment in the sun.
Most of the time, what happens when this gets out there is that it has its moment in the sun and then it sort of just dies off. There’s a trade there, and the trade is probably a month-long trade. It’s the initial run-up, then the sell-off, and then the secondary run-up for everybody that missed the initial run-up. Then the thing actually doesn’t end up getting any traction or any usage, and it sort of just dies.
Yeah, that’s kind of my take on what’s going to happen here.
So, you think Aster is going to have its moment in the sun, flare up, and then flame out?
But I think it operates in an area that is possible, right? As long as it’s possible for it to steal some market share, I think it’s a good trade.
Right now, it basically traded up immensely, very, very quickly, and it’s had a 35% pullback from the highs. So, is it ready for round 2? I’m watching it. I think there’s a round-2 trade here, basically, to take it, as a lot of people missed that trade.
So, I’m kind of watching it. I’d probably nibble around a dollar. If we get a more significant pullback, I’d probably buy at a buck and try to sell out at 2 again.
I don’t know about doing trades like that. Maybe it works for you, but I wouldn’t recommend doing that for most people. The reason why is, just look at TRUMP coin, right?
At current valuations, Aster—I don’t know what their revenues are, but whatever they are, there’s not a statistically significant sample size of Aster revenues to justify the $2.4 billion FTV or wherever it’s trading right now. So, you’re basically buying it on vibes.
If you buy it—it’s trading at $1.40—if it goes to $1 and you buy it for a pop up to $2, you’re buying it based on vibes. You’re buying it based on technicals. You’re buying a chart. You’re not buying a project’s actual fundamentals.
So, again, Avi, you’ve got enough experience doing this and probably a good enough gut feel for crypto that that may work for you. But I would not recommend doing that for most people, and I certainly won’t be doing it myself, because to me, this is just another example of TRUMP coin.
This is a project whose token is, as of right this moment, unlinked to anything real. It’s more of a memecoin than a Hyperliquid-like vehicle that buys back tokens with business revenues. Sure, it may become that one day, but it isn’t yet. And even if they announce that they will, they only have a couple of days of being live to demonstrate it.
For me, watching what happened to TRUMP coin, I just don’t know. There is no way to value this thing, and so I think it’s important to avoid FOMO or chart trading.
I guess I mean, don’t get one-shotted by this idea of revenue, Jonah. There are still good trades out there.
But why 1 to 2? To me, these are not objective frameworks. And yes, I agree it’s not just revenue that matters. I’m perfectly happy to invest in things on vibes and memes and just YOLO in and out of stuff.
But this thing’s been around for a day.
That’s exactly why I like to look at the new things for trades: because it’s been around for a day and because it moved so quickly, so fast. A lot of people ended up on the sidelines, and I think that lends itself to becoming a good trading asset, right? I think that’s where maybe we differ: that actually makes it a good trading asset to me.
But look, I’m definitely on your side. I think that, again—okay, so if you go to the website itself, I don’t know if anyone’s actually gone to the website other than just trading the coin. It’s not a particularly good webpage. That was insane, by the way. I wish I could share my screen right now so people know I’m not joking about this. Hold on. I’m going to share my screen.
I can’t wait to see this.
Hold on. I can’t share. As we’re talking about this, somebody just texted me, “Have you heard of Aster?”
We can hear—I know somebody texted you because we can hear your text messages in the background. You’re like an old man. My mom turns the text-message ringer on.
Yeah, but that’s crazy. Somebody literally just texted me about this, which brings me back to the point: when you get an asset that comes out and rips really hard and nobody gets in, it does generate FOMO on pullbacks, and you can sometimes take trades out. That’s all I’m saying.
That’s a good trade.
But if you actually look at the website and the app itself, it’s kind of shit. It also just doesn’t really make sense. A tremendous amount of wash trading has to be happening on this platform because it says it has $258 million of open interest.
Yours? No way. Unless it’s all CZ.
And it says it has $532 billion in total trading volume. Jonah, what is that ratio?
No way.
What is that ratio?
That ratio makes no sense. It’s potential fraud.
I mean, that’s crazy.
What else could it be?
That sets off my antennas. That’s got to be the highest turnover in the history of any exchange launch ever. If it’s real, honestly, where I’m at with this is that all crypto Twitter is picking up on it. Let’s just, for comparison’s sake, go to Hyperliquid.
Yeah.
Today, on $3.8 billion of open interest, they have $4.8 billion of volume on Bitcoin. On Aster, they have $236 million of open interest on Bitcoin, which is actually more than what they said they have on their homepage, but let’s put that aside for a second: $2.2 billion of 24-hour volume. So they have literally 1/20th of the open interest but half of the volume. That doesn’t make any sense.
No, it doesn’t. The trading opportunities that you mentioned, Avi, have nothing to do with the fact that this is a DEX, a clone. There’s nothing special about this. There’s nothing uniquely valuable here. It’s just an insanely volatile asset. It went up. It created a lot of wealth over an extremely short period of time.
So if you go and annualize that volatility, it’s so freaking insane that it attracts retail traders. To me, that is it. There’s also a CZ story behind it, too. Everybody loves the mythology of the hero who’s just returned from his exile to save humanity from the forces that want to extinguish crypto. So there’s definitely a CZ meta here, and maybe you can profit from the high amplitude of this thing.
If it trades down another 50%, you just compare where it started to where it peaked out, and yes, it seems like there’s probably a range-trade opportunity to buy the dip on it. The reason why I hate these trades, though, is because they can nuke you so badly. People who invested in Trump on a similar volatility thesis ended up losing 60% to 90% of their money in very short order.
So I think what’s underrated in this market is the ability to just maintain your patience and your calm and your vision for your portfolio and not get distracted. To me, this is the ultimate shiny object that distracts you out of good long-term positions. I’m more of a long-term trader, so I don’t like things like this. This bothers me.
Another thing that bothers me is that on their website, next to the section that says “Perpetual,” there’s a section that says “1,001x.” Why 1,001x? Why not 1,000x? They’re trying to copy us, Avi. What are these people doing? So basically, you’re on mute.
They’re trying to one-up us, Jonah.
Trying to one-up us. Why not? They should have put 999x on there just to be respectful. Have some respect for our moves.
This is a shiny object. The logo is a logo of a shiny object. I bet we won’t be talking about Aster in 6 months. How many exchanges are in the graveyard? That’s what made Hyperliquid so hard. It was obviously a good product. I missed the no-KYC, but how many exchanges are in the graveyard? Do you remember back in 2021 how many exchanges there were?
It was more than 100, I think.
2. Ads (Kraken OTC, Peaq, Katana)
It was crazy. It was a lot. I want to see some new ideas in crypto, not just more exchanges and more copycat versions of previous products.
3. TradFi Catnip & Crypto Equities
Maybe we’ll do a segment next week on all the new stuff. I’ll put out some feelers to figure out what else is being built right now. One thing that’s absolutely getting all the hype is the new stablecoin products that are coming out. You have Stable and Plasma. Maple is generating a decent amount of hype off of this, too. I don’t know if you saw their pool that got filled, the syrup USD pool.
I didn’t.
That got filled in 30 seconds. It was like $200 million worth or something like that. Basically, I think stablecoins are going through what I would call a renaissance right now. I think they’re absolute catnip for TradFi investors.
In the same way that Ripple is catnip for a TradFi investor, which is why I really like the idea of Plasma doing very well over the coming few months. Once it goes live and once it’s across more exchanges—because right now you can only trade it on Hyperliquid because it’s not actually launched yet—I think it’s going to do extremely well. I think people in TradFi are probably going to try to pile into this thing.
You bring up a really interesting point, which is the catnip for TradFi investors. That’s what the market’s telling you is where you should put your money. You should put your money in front of or alongside TradFi. You should not put your money in things that TradFi won’t touch, like Aster. Let me give you an example—a concrete example: Galaxy stock.
When are you going to stop coming at me for this Aster take? I just said trade it. Look, I—
I’m talking with you.
I respect your opinion. I might differ, humbly and respectfully, on Aster. I think that is a nuclear cesspit with a gigantic avoid sign, with a nuclear logo in yellow and black next to it. But anyway, you might be right. If you’ve had success trading short-term charts out there with insane volatility, do it.
Value & Momentum
It’s not my thing. It’s an obvious thing. But Galaxy, just to give you guys a concrete example of TradFi catnip, used to be such that when Bitcoin was down 1%, Galaxy was down 6% because it was on the random Toronto Stock Exchange and was basically a beta play to crypto. It was Mike Novogratz’s Bitcoin, but IPOed in Canada, and in 2021, crypto things with business-looking tendrils attached to them would get a huge multiple. Then, in 2022, they would get a discount.
Galaxy was just this massive, volatile beta-to-Bitcoin thing. Now, today, Bitcoin’s down 2.5%, and Galaxy is down 43 basis points. The crypto equities with crypto-adjacent themes—or, better yet, AI, like what Galaxy has with its data centers—to me, that’s a place where you can buy.
If Galaxy were to really nuke right now on crypto just selling off as liquidations occur, the relative price action is telling you that Galaxy will outperform on the upswing because of who’s trading it, right? Then there’s another one that—I’m sure XRP, when it IPOs, will probably trade the same way, or Ripple equity, rather.
I think the market’s telling you, in that one little example I just gave, everything you need to know about where the fresh dollars are coming from. They’re not coming from the strung-out people in our world. They’re coming from these new traders who are backstopping stablecoin equity, backstopping Galaxy, even while XRP is down 4%, HYPE is down 5%, and ETH is down 6%.
It’s crypto equities where it’s at right now, weirdly enough. Maybe we’ll get a crypto equities season.
4. DAT Management Matters
Yeah, I mean, one thing that haunts me, Jonah, is that at the bottom of the market post-FTX, I put a substantial amount of my capital into miners and GBTC. I sold it all for like a 2x, and all of these miners have done like 10x since then. I’m like, wow, I would have been so rich if I had just kept those positions. Many such cases.
Yeah, crypto equities in general, I think, are going to do very well over the coming months.
Value & Momentum
Exactly. Because of what you just outlined, I put a flyer on Nakamoto, which absolutely collapsed, I think mostly because of mismanagement, huge amounts of shares hitting the market, an inability to raise capital, and I plowed in.
Nakamoto, for those that don’t know, was the David Bailey DAT. It’s trading below NAV, and I think this is the first, quote-unquote, implosion of a DAT that we’ve seen. And Jonah, if you remember, we were talking about these being good pickups if they got to reasonable discounts to NAV. Right now, this one’s at about a 35% discount to NAV.
And it’s trading very close to the insider price. The insider price was $1.12, and they’re still locked up. It’s trading at $1.33 right now, so it’s pretty close to the insider price, which makes me think that we could be due for a nice little short squeeze or a nice little bounce.
Basically, I think in this pullback, we’re probably going to get more of this stuff, and it’s worthwhile looking out for. One thing I’ve found kind of interesting, though, is that the competency of the people running the DATs really does matter. Performance really does depend on that, is what I was trying to say.
Something like BMNR, for example—BitMine, Tom Lee’s thing—has not seen that massive collapse in the same way that Nakamoto did. I think it’s sort of inevitable that it will at some point, and that’ll be an even better buy than Nakamoto because it’s actually run well.
But I love it when we plan out a trade months in advance and then it starts to give you opportunities to get in. It’s like, okay, well, I know what I’m getting into now.
Yeah. You just lie and wait. Where are you getting the insider price for Nakamoto? That would be an interesting thing for the listeners to hear and do some research on themselves. Like you said, the insider entry point was $1.12.
Value & Momentum
I got that number from somebody that did the deal.
Okay. I was going to say I was unaware of any public repository of that data, but that’s pretty cool. So I think the trade is basically: pick the DATs that aren’t going to miss coupon payments and be forced to sell crypto when they trade to a discount, then buy them and hope they have the staying power to ride it back to par.
Again, like you said, you have to assess the teams and the financials. That’s real equity analysis, but I’m sure 1000x listeners can probably do that. Some of them can, and maybe post their analysis on Twitter after they’ve gotten their positions. I think that’s probably something to look out for.
One other thing that’s kind of on my radar right now, just in broader crypto, is doing that with Hyperliquid if I can. I think if this altcoin sell-off becomes really acute, we may get another April-like opportunity to scoop that thing.
I really like it. Everything is shanking much harder than I expected in altcoin space. Even PUMP might be another great one to do that on. HYPE and PUMP are these 2 amazing money machines. It’s fine not to be early as long as you lie and wait when shit really hits the fan, like it looks like it’s about to.
5. Capitalizing on Crypto Repricing
So, yeah, I think that’s probably the reason to have less than 100% of your portfolio allocated: just so that you have dry powder to buy these dips, not because timing a short trade is going to work particularly well. I don’t know how long—I wouldn’t feel comfortable being short for more than a few days at this point, because it does feel like a liquidation trade, not like a structural repricing lower of crypto for some meaningful, bigger reason, like what we saw during the Elizabeth Warren era, FTX, or Luna.
6. Making Money in Crime Season
Do you think that crime season, which does kind of seem to be making a comeback here, will actually reprice crypto lower? Is there any risk of that? We’re not calling Aster a scam or anything, but if the fishy-smelling projects continue to smell fishier, will we end up in a scenario like we saw in May 2022, when Luna did so much damage to the price of so many projects as people realized that it was a house of cards? Do you think there’s any risk of that at this point?
Value & Momentum
I mean, I don’t think so unless something truly horrendous happens. For example, a project could be fully exit-scamming or get rugged. I just don’t see it as an existential risk until we get the next Democratic administration, which hopefully won’t be for a while.
But where I thought you were going with this is, is crime season going to continue? My answer is yes—hugely. There are ways to make money off of it. If the US government is going to do something involving a stock, they’re going to make sure this thing goes up.
The initial reaction to Intel and the 10% stake, I don’t think, factored in that Trump was probably going to broker some other deals. Good stuff was coming for this stock. Your takeaway from this can be that if the US government is involved with a stock, you can read into that and think to yourself, okay, maybe this thing is going to do pretty well.
One thing I did—which I got lucky about, but then doubled down on this morning—is Tesla. I told you guys that I bought Tesla a little bit ago. I bought a lot more this morning specifically because there was that shot of Elon Musk and Trump sitting together, and Trump saying, “I miss you.”
The lip reader.
Value & Momentum
Yeah. And you can see it. It’s pretty clear, and you’re just like, okay, clearly Trump and Elon are back on good terms. Probably going to be good for the stock, right? I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen there, but I think at some point over the next 6 months, it’s probably going to be good for Tesla stock.
I don’t think the market’s going to crash anytime soon, so Tesla can probably outperform. You’re basically looking for who’s most likely to benefit—what stocks are most likely to benefit. And that, I think, is going to be a big part of trading moving forward.
Bitcoin is part of this, which is why I think there’s a little bit of a floor: Trump has staked his reputation in some way on crypto. There is some floor level on Bitcoin where crime will take place and Bitcoin will go up again.
Yeah, I mean, he did. My take on it is that when he got elected, he was tweeting, like, “You’re welcome, Bitcoiners. See, this is what happens when you put your chips in my corner. I deliver.”
So, yeah, I do think that he’ll probably accumulate some Bitcoin if it goes too low or backstop it somehow. His kids are all in on crypto. To me, the corruption is just so palpable. Crime season is really the meta right now. And I think other ways to profit from it are probably just dip-buying. It’s all just dip-buying, isn’t it, Avi?
I mean, there are basically—I think the best ways to play crime season are BNB, because I do think that if perps become legal in the US, it does feel like Binance is going to be the primary beneficiary.
Value & Momentum
HYPE to some extent as well, but the KYC thing may block them from achieving the same kind of success from that catalyst. I also think that Ripple is a Crime Season trade. Ripple in and of itself is a totally useless company that just sells XRP, but that business will become better as Crime Season progresses into the later innings. Galaxy. I’m literally just word-vomiting, or brainstorming, what to accumulate on this dip. I guess the hardest part is going to be timing it.
7. Trade Ideas
It hasn’t dipped hard enough yet. This is the first move. I think, as a general trading heuristic, you don’t really want to fade the first move. What do I mean by this? You can think about this on a weekly time frame or a daily time frame. I’m thinking about this specifically on a daily time frame.
For example, we’ve basically been going sideways for a week. There have been 10 days of sideways so far, and today we got a reasonable 3% move down after ranging for 10 days. You tend not to want to fade those substantial moves after you’ve been ranging for a while, right? Wait to see how the day closes.
The other thing is that we’ve now solidified that 117K level as a good stop-out level. The way that Bitcoin trades, especially level to level, is that people look for symmetry in trades and they look for asymmetry in trades. For example, at 117K, it was pretty equidistant to the highs of 124K as it was to the lows of 107K. It was basically 50/50, which is why you ranged there for a while.
There was no easy stop-out or stop-in. There was no asymmetry there. It was a pretty symmetrical price level. Now you have a very easy stop-out above 117K, and you can easily target the lows here. I think that makes it a much better trade to sell here than it was to sell before.
I’m of the mindset that momentum traders, especially because of this new lower high, are now going to try to get out. You need the value buyers to come in, and I don’t think the value buyers come in until at least 100K.
Yeah, I mean, just another way of looking at symmetry is through time, right? You could compare this sell-off, which feels like it’s just getting started, to the sell-off that happened in April on the tariffs. Then ask yourself, “Okay, so these 2 sell-offs could be symmetric because you have a similar group of players, a similar leverage backdrop, and a similar average entry price now versus then.” Not a whole lot has happened since April, so it’s kind of the same setup.
Let’s just do a little measuring on TradingView. The peak-to-trough move from, let’s call it, January to the pits of Liberation Day puke in Bitcoin was 30%.
Value & Momentum
I don’t think we’re going to get anywhere close to that.
Yeah, me neither. I’m just saying, what feels like the right fraction of that sell-off for this move, which is not being driven by an exogenous potential recession event but more just a liquidation? Maybe 20% maximum, right?
Value & Momentum
Yeah, I would say 20%. That puts you at about 100K. I think 100K to 105K is a great buy, and I’m probably buying alts on that dip.
Yeah. So, a 20% sell-off from the absolute tippy-top is $99,000 a token. To me, if you trade down there, then we’re going to be having the same conversation we had in April, which is just, “Close your eyes, don’t be a coward, and buy.” But here at 112K, it’s not close enough to start putting it all out there on the table.
Value & Momentum
For sure.
That’s kind of how I would value this. Just be like, “Okay, what happened in April? There was a real catalyst then. Now there’s no catalyst.” Max two-thirds of that sell-off is appropriate, but probably more like half of it. So, 15% peak-to-trough—and just for your reference, 15% peak-to-trough would be $105K in Bitcoin—probably a good way of looking at it.
Value & Momentum
So, I think that’s good, Jonah. I’ll see you at 105K.
See you at 105K. Avi, we’ll be loading up the gun in the meantime and coming up with a shopping list. In the meantime, stay healthy.
Value & Momentum
You too. Shanah tovah.
Shanah tovah.
Value & Momentum
[Speaker?]
Happy New Year to everyone out there who celebrates. It was great talking to you, Jonah, as always.
Value & Momentum
Likewise. See you next week.