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Avi 在加密货币之外押注什么

Avi FelmanJonah Van Bourg

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TL;DR
  • 本期核心是 Avi Felman 全面拆解自己的投资组合:以 NASDAQ 和 S&P 指数为底仓,再加上 HOOD,押注“全球赌博文化的增长”——营收持续增长,即将上线的社交信息流也“会把人们带进赌博场景,规模会很大”。
  • 从5年维度看,黄金和白银是“无需多想”的选择:世界正在碎片化,美元今年相对其他货币大幅走弱,“一个依赖美元的世界已经不再真实”。 更关键的是,上海仓储的黄金过去一年增至7倍;现在买入黄金,意味着“抢跑全球最大的 DAT”,也就是各国央行持续积累黄金。白银会受到溢出效应带动。
  • 通过 URA 超级看多铀:随着自由贸易瓦解,各国领导人得出结论,不能依赖俄罗斯或哈萨克斯坦的石油,“核电是实现能源独立的最佳方式”。 曾经阻碍核电发展的政治环境正在逆转——加拿大和德国都在“改变调子”——因此建议“现在就尽可能多地买入并囤积铀”,因为铀的供应可以持续很久。
  • Jonah Van Bourg 补充说,可再生能源也“因此一路飙升”;Avi Felman 表示同意,但主要是指铀,并称“这是政治正在发生变化”。
  • 做多 Tesla,因为它是唯一的公开市场机器人标的:其他机器人公司“全都是私有公司”,Tesla 将成为“未来机器人领域的领导者”,因此投资者“会再次涌向 Tesla”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 组合底仓是指数,再押注赌博文化

  • Avi Felman 的投资组合“就是 NASDAQ、S&P”,外加 HOOD——“营收持续增长”,社交信息流上线后“会把人们带进赌博场景,规模会很大”。

2. 黄金是在“抢跑全球最大的 DAT”

  • 5年投资逻辑包括:世界正在碎片化,美元今年相对其他货币大幅走弱,美国“已经不想再当领导者”——“一个依赖美元的世界已经不再真实。”
  • 最具代表性的数据显示,上海仓储的黄金过去一年增至7倍;买入黄金,基本上就是“在抢跑全球最大的 DAT”,也就是“各国央行持续积累黄金”,而且“这种趋势会外溢到白银”。

3. 铀:政治是催化剂,URA 是投资工具

  • “兄弟,先看看图表就知道了”——但真正的驱动因素在于:当自由贸易瓦解后,核电是实现能源独立的“最佳方式”,尤其适用于无法直接获得其他资源的国家。加拿大和德国都在“改变调子”。他的建议是,“现在就尽可能多地买入并囤积铀”,因为铀的供应可以持续很久。
  • Jonah Van Bourg 补充说,可再生能源“因此一路飙升”;Avi Felman 也基本同意,但限定在铀领域:“我也这么认为——主要是指铀。我认为这是政治正在发生变化。”

4. Tesla,因为其他公司都是私有的

  • “这是机器人标的”——没有其他上市公司能让投资者参与机器人革命,而 Tesla 将成为“未来机器人领域的领导者”;由于其他机器人公司全都是私有公司,“投资者会再次涌向 Tesla”。
Avi Felman

Look, my entire portfolio right now is just NASDAQ and S&P, which I don't need to explain to you. That's just an index. HOOD, because I want to bet on the increase of gambling culture around the world, and I think HOOD is doing an amazing job at capturing that. I think it will continue to be the winner. Revenues continue to grow, and they're launching a social feed, which is going to bring people in for gambling. Huge.

1. Gold Becomes The Core Hedge

I own gold because I think that—and this is like a 5-year bet—gold and silver specifically are no-brainers, man. The world is trending into a more fractured state. The dollar is down a huge amount against other currencies this year. People don't trust the U.S. to be leaders anymore because the U.S. doesn't want to be a leader anymore. It wants other people to take care of its own problems.

2. Central Banks Are Buying Gold

The idea of a dollar-dependent world is just not true anymore. If you look, there's a chart published today that shows the amount of gold warehoused in Shanghai has literally increased 7x in the last year. That's going to continue, and it's going to continue across the world. You're basically front-running the biggest DAT in the world, which is central banks accumulating gold. That's going to bleed over to silver.

3. Uranium Gains Geopolitical Momentum

Uranium—I've talked about this thesis before, a while ago, but I'm super bullish on uranium specifically. One, dude, just look at the chart. But from a geopolitical perspective, resources are getting more highly sought-after because, in a world where free trade breaks down, you don't want to have too many dependencies on countries that could turn against you.

4. Nuclear Power Drives Energy Independence

That's what a lot of leaders are thinking longer-term right now. They're thinking, “Okay, well, we need to be—we can't rely on Russian oil or oil from Kazakhstan. We can't—we need to be energy independent.” Nuclear power is the best way to do that, and it's been held back for a long time specifically because of politics. You're seeing that change. You're seeing Canada change its tune. You're seeing Germany change its tune. You're seeing all these countries that used to be against nuclear energy changing their tune, thinking, “Okay, maybe we should actually invest in this because it's the only way to be energy independent for countries. This is especially true for countries that don't necessarily have direct access to other resources. Basically, you just buy and stockpile as much uranium as you possibly can right now because it'll last you forever. You want to start generating electricity within your own borders. Very simple stuff.”

Jonah Van Bourg

I think renewable energies are going through the roof because of this.

Avi Felman

Yeah, I think so too. Mainly on the uranium part. I think it's a change in politics.

Jonah Van Bourg

Which ETF are you long?

Avi Felman

URA.

Jonah Van Bourg

URA. Okay. And then—

5. Tesla Will Lead Robotics

Avi Felman

I'm long Tesla because I think there are no other public companies on the market where you can get access to the robotics revolution. People are going to crowd into Tesla again because it's the only—it's like the robotics play, right? It's going to be the leader in terms of robotics in the future. Every other robotics company is private. Tesla is not. Buy Tesla.

Avi 在加密货币之外押注什么 — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub