比特币创下历史新高，Crypto接下来怎么走？| 1000x Live
这场选举是本期节目的政权切换点：Avi Felman和Jonah Van Bourg认为，美国政治体系对Crypto的接纳，会把它从受污名化的交易，变成可配置的资产类别。 Jonah的简化表述是「Crypto现在合法了」（"Crypto is legal now"），依据是219名当选的亲Crypto候选人；Avi预计，去监管将释放此前因执法风险被冻结的资本和产品创新。
他们大选前的持仓逻辑不同，但最终都收敛到最大化敞口。 Jonah相信Trump历次民调表现都优于预期，Avi则交易的是赔率而非确定性；迈阿密-戴德县结果公布、Bitcoin刚刚站上$70,000后，Avi把Aave加仓至$144、DOGE加仓至$0.18。Avi此前看空后的投降——「你就是得满仓做多」（"You just gotta be max long"）——发生在一轮持续8个月的区间末端。
建立战略性Bitcoin储备，是本次讨论中潜在上行空间最大的条件变量。 Jonah认为，这将确认Bitcoin是非主权、储备级货币，并喊出「每枚100万美元」；Avi则认为，小国可能抢在美国之前行动，在华盛顿正式落地前形成自我强化的采用循环。两人把它视为一个刚刚变得实质性的可能性，而非确定事件。
Avi认为山寨季已经启动，但提醒其有效期可能只有3周。 ENA、Lido、Eigen、Aave、DOGE以及其他此前受约束或被大举做空的资产，应受益于不加区分的资金流入——「不管你在聊天室里输入什么，答案大概率都是要涨」（"no matter what you type in that chat, the answer is probably it’s going up"）——但DOGE涨到$0.65时，理由应是卖出，而不是把目标价外推至$1.80。
ETH是Avi眼中的短期补涨交易，SOL则仍是Jonah偏好的中长期L1敞口。 Avi预计，空头回补、ETF可及性和动量将在3周内推动ETH/BTC上涨15%-20%；Jonah称这是在「接飞刀」（"falling knife"），认为SOL/BTC上行空间更大，因为交易meme币的用户必须维持有意义的SOL余额。Avi承认，未来1年Solana大概率跑赢。
双方最尖锐的分歧不在方向，而在杠杆。 Jonah反复提高敞口，并使用轻度Bitcoin杠杆，因为他预计Bitcoin将拥有Crypto中最好的Sharpe ratio；Avi不愿让一个月度判断正确与否，取决于能否熬过3天回撤，并希望Bitcoin回到$72,000时手里还有现金可加仓。他偏好的杠杆场景，是FTX这类清算事件之后的短暂均值回归。
他们的离场仪表盘非常明确：资金费率极端、成交量连续数日超过市值、项目上线即涨100倍，以及市场人士不断把已经抬高的目标价再往上乘。 Avi设想的典型场景是Bitcoin涨到$120,000，市场开始喊$250,000，而$120,000恰恰成为顶部。「赢家平均赢家」（"Winners average winners"）适用于早期；一旦杠杆和反身性的目标价修正接管行情，就该落袋为安。
1. 选举把持续8个月的区间行情变成了政权交易
Avi此前的看空投降来得恰到好处：在数月区间震荡的无聊行情后，他决定「你就是得满仓做多」（"you just gotta be max long"），随后行情立即突破。大选后的持仓态度更简单——「继续做多，闭上眼睛」（"stay long and close my eyes"）——不过，已有大量浮盈的投资者可以适当兑现部分利润。
Jonah的大选前优势来自民调方法论。Trump支持者似乎更不愿回应调查，但民调机构也不能在没有失职风险的情况下，直接把2016年和2020年出现的4-7个百分点偏差加回去；因此Jonah自行做了调整，并激进建仓。
Avi区分的是有利赔率与预测选举结果。Crypto此前已经跌到足以计入部分Kamala Harris胜选概率的水平，因此她获胜时他仍有退出空间，而Trump获胜则保留「超级火箭」（"giga rockets"）式的上行：他说「我要超级做多，因为赔率很好」（"I’m gonna go super long because there’s good asymmetry"）。
迈阿密-戴德县成为Avi的确认信号。Trump在那里明显跑赢后，他认为大选已经结束，当时Bitcoin刚刚站上$70,000；他把Aave加仓至$144、DOGE加仓至$0.18。对于那些认为选举无关紧要、或可以逢高做空的人，Jonah的结论是：「这不是一笔应该淡出的交易」（"This wasn’t a fade"）。
2. 监管松绑同时释放估值倍数和产品创新
Jonah引用Brian Armstrong的统计：当选国会议员的「亲Crypto候选人已经达到219人，而且还在增加」（"219 pro-crypto candidates and counting"），并用3个词概括重估逻辑：「Crypto现在合法了」（"Crypto is legal now"）。市场可以在具体应用完全落地前，提前定价未来采用，尤其是此前持怀疑态度的人开始积累Bitcoin之后。
Avi认为，监管最大的成本不在律师费，而在被放弃的创新。开发者无法判断一个新功能会不会让自己被起诉甚至入狱，就不会去构想雄心勃勃的产品；移除这一威胁，将改变行业的「思维框架」（"mind frame"），让DeFi开发和使用重新活跃起来。
Jonah把这种堵塞延伸到交易层面：美国人无法自由交易永续合约，正规的TradFi机构也因为担心SEC行动，不敢做简单的现货与期货基差交易。他预期，随着新领导层上台，针对Uniswap、Coinbase和Cumberland等公司的案件被终止，市场将发生逆转：「Donald Trump竞选时打的就是#PumpYourBags平台」（"Donald Trump ran on a #PumpYourBags platform"）。
直接交易标的是Avi反复提到的「SEC币」：UNI、Aave和Lido，以及Eigen、Lido等高Beta于ETH的资产；Avi还表示看好ENA。Jonah认为，如果诉讼消失，这些受执法打压的资产还能上涨300%，但强调应在估值变得荒谬之前退出。
3. Bitcoin储备会形成主权国家间的博弈论循环
Jonah的条件判断非常明确：「如果建立战略性Bitcoin储备，每枚就是100万美元」（"If a strategic Bitcoin reserve is created, million dollars a token"）。美国采用将赋予Bitcoin作为非主权、储备级货币的官方背书，地位可与黄金相比；其他国家随后会「像旅鼠一样」跟进，以免错过时机。
他的逻辑不止于支撑价格的政策。若美元走弱或贸易伙伴停止使用美元，储备Bitcoin可以保留一个国家的金融实力，这意味着Bitcoin可能从美元、欧元、英镑、日元和韩元手中分走份额。若Bitcoin获得全球储备货币地位，或碳氢化合物开始以Bitcoin结算，「每枚100万美元」的结果就能「一夜之间」成立。
Avi预计，行动更快的国家会在美国意图变得可信后抢先布局。对一个小国而言，只要它认为美国采用Bitcoin的概率哪怕有25%，采用本身的下行风险就很小；而它先行一步，也会提高美国采用的政治概率。Avi认为，「博弈论」对BTC极其有利。
两人仍然保留不确定性：Jonah说，过去6个月，建立储备的概率已经从大约「1 delta」升至「50 delta」；Avi则说，只要出现美国认真的「哪怕一丝迹象」（"even a hint"）就够了。Trump出席会议、Bitcoin交易和DeFi项目都是信号，但都不等于储备已经立法或落地。
4. 山寨季已经启动，但时钟按周计算
Avi预计，新资金会把几乎所有资产一起推高：ENA、Lido、Eigen、Aave、DOGE和Solana meme币，还包括被大举做空的资产，因为在这种环境里没人愿意继续持有空头。他用一句玩笑概括这种不加区分的阶段：「连USDT都要涨，伙计们，USDT要涨到$2」（"Even USDT is gonna go up, guys. USDT is gonna hit $2"）。
资金流入仍占主导时，核心策略是避免过度换仓。Crypto现有参与者只是「世界上的一个小圈子」，他们可以像2021年那样达成共识，并且共同判断正确；真正的新资本进场后，「赢家平均赢家」（"winners average winners"）。
但Avi表示，山寨季「通常只持续大约3周」（"only last, like, three weeks"），因为价格几乎会立刻变得荒谬。如果DOGE在这段时间涨到$0.65，投资者大概率应该卖出，而不是把目标价上修至$1.80。
Bitcoin也遵循同样的反身性：价格可能涨到$120,000，引发市场一致喊出$250,000，随后在$120,000见顶。离场信号包括资金费率连续1周冲上天、meme币连续数日成交量超过自身市值，以及新项目争相实现100x。Jonah则认为，从$70,000涨到$76,000仍只是行情的早期阶段。
5. ETH主导反弹交易，SOL承载更长周期逻辑
Avi看好ETH的前提就是短窗口。只能投资股票的配置者可以买它的ETF；他称该ETF当天长时间以来首次出现溢价，并预计ETH/BTC将在3周内上涨15%-20%，25%的涨幅则是更完整的目标。
他的逻辑由3部分组成：空头回补、组合配置和动量。ETH曾是Crypto最标准的空头腿，新一批长期ETF买家可能会把它纳入组合，而ETH/BTC从多年低点反转后，可能形成自我实现的上涨。「如果ETH/BTC能站上0.4，甚至0.45，我就出场」（"If we can get above 0.4, maybe 0.45 on ETH/BTC, like, I’m out"）。
Jonah承认ETH可能短线脉冲，但称这是在「接飞刀」（"catching a falling knife"）。Ethereum缺少要求用户维持大额余额的活动；即便机构在Base上进行结算，可能也只需要廉价Gas。他宁愿买SOL/BTC，除非BlackRock把Aladdin迁移到Ethereum这种级别的催化剂出现；而且即便如此，他也不认为一定能保证ETH跑赢。
Jonah更新后的L1框架，是看用户参与网络时需要维持多大的钱包余额。Solana的meme币市场鼓励用户为快速轮动维持数千美元至数百万美元的余额，可能打乱这套「全球彩票系统」（"global lottery system"）。他曾经是Solana的反对者，后来把大部分旧ETH配置换成SOL，投资期限设为6-12个月；Avi同意Solana大概率在1年内胜出，但认为SOL/ETH在未来3周已经见顶。
6. 轻度杠杆表达趋势，重度杠杆可能抹掉趋势
Jonah打破了自己的纪律：此前他已经「大概6次」认为自己满仓做多，之后又加了法币和轻度Bitcoin杠杆。他的理由不是追求绝对收益最大化，而是Bitcoin单位波动率对应的预期损益：如果监管接纳带来更稳定的1年上涨，Bitcoin将拥有Crypto中最好的Sharpe ratio。
Avi反对的是路径依赖。交易者可能在1个月维度上判断正确，却在连续3个坏日子后恐慌、减仓或被清算；如果Bitcoin跌到$72,000，他希望加仓，而不是被迫处理亏损。他把杠杆留给崩盘和大规模清算后的短暂均值回归交易，举例就是FTX式机会。
Avi认为，反弹最终停止的概率有95%，原因是交易者过度自信，而不是地缘政治。拥挤的杠杆仓位会迫使交易者减仓，向市场倾倒供给，并触发清算，最终杀死动量；不过在当时，Velo数据显示市场杠杆并不高。
Jonah解释了他为何反对5x-10x敞口背后的尾部风险。沙特阿拉伯及其他产油国合计拥有每天200万-300万桶闲置产能，足以替代伊朗每天160万桶的出口；但如果伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约30%的石油流动可能受阻。若伊朗同时阻断自身及其他地区产油国的出口，全球可能短缺每天3,000万桶。Jonah表示，即便这一情景的概率只有5%，如果Israel攻击Kharg Island，也足以制造大到先清算交易者、再让Bitcoin恢复上行的波动。
7. 快速市场里，集中持仓胜过钱包铺开
Jonah提出，在Bitcoin涨到$100,000之前，可以把组合的50%-80%放在Bitcoin，接近该价位后再逐步换入SOL、ETH和meme币。在战术敞口上，他更进一步：「现在Crypto配置里真的不要留哪怕$1的法币」（"Literally do not have $1 in fiat right now of your crypto allocation"），因为他认为这次机会的赔率极不对称。
Avi把大部分交易资本放在中心化交易所，约15%放在链上，这部分资金又因Geco的收益而扩大。他的链上方法类似「反常规VC式投资」（"perverse VC style investing"）：买入市值低于$50M的猫币，长期持有，偶尔把赢家收益再循环，同时在交易所主动轮动更大的仓位。
他的组合管理原则，是本期节目最清晰的操作警告：「钱散得到处都是时，真的很容易亏钱」（"It is really easy to lose money when your money is everywhere"）。资金分散在Robinhood、Fidelity、Coinbase、多条链和13个钱包之间，会制造足够大的认知摩擦，让人忘记自己的交易；Jonah补充说，当市值超过$100M-$200M后，一个组合持有的币不应超过10个。
他们直播间买入PNUT，集中体现了机会和风险。Jonah认为，PNUT和GOAT是Crypto在大选后获得政治正名的出口；Avi则喜欢PNUT同时具备政治和动物meme属性。两人在直播中同时买入，看着价格快速拉升，随后都声明自己没有影响力：「我们不知道自己在说什么，我们只是在聊一枚该死的PNUT币」（"We don’t know what we’re talking about. We’re talking about a frigging PNUT coin"）。
No matter what you type in that chat, the answer is probably, “It’s going up” at this point. You can say ENA, Lido, Eigen, Aave, Doge, whatever it is, because of the capital flows that are about to come in. Even USDT is going to go up, guys. USDT is going to hit $2, right?
I’ve started messing with leverage for the first time in my PA. I’ve been breaking my rule. I thought I was max long, like, 6 times already, and I just keep getting longer because the price goes up. I keep getting longer because I add more fiat into this and get more convicted, and then I get longer because I decide to use some leverage.
I’m just getting increasingly degenerate with this because, at this point, I really do think we’re going to take off. I don’t really see why this rally would stop. I don’t.
We’re live. We’re live, and Bitcoin’s fucking ripping. We’re going up, and we’re all going to fucking make it.
We’re going to Valhalla.
Remember when I said, when I finally capitulated on being bearish, “You just got to be max long”?
You know what?
And we’re live.
It was kind of timely capitulation, right at the end of an 8-month-long, range-bound boredom fest. You were like, “All right, that’s it. I’m long.” And then, boom.
Yeah. Basically.
God candle.
And now I’m just going to stay long and close my eyes. If you’ve been long for a while and you’ve made a ton of money, maybe you should just clip some profits. But honestly, the next 4 years of our life are going to be pretty fucking fun, Jonah.
You can just see the moment in the charts where crypto got legalized across the board.
Crypto is legal now. That’s all I have to say. Don’t overthink it. Crypto is legal now.
As a side thing, I got this tablet.
Oh, you’re one of those people.
It’s called the reMarkable. You write on it, and it’s kind of like paper. I take notes.
No, I know what it is. My tenant who stole from me left one in my house, and then I sold it on eBay because I thought it was stupid to have to pay for something that’s basically paper.
Yeah.
Which is basically what it is.
Yeah, but it’s useful because you get to keep all of your notes in one place. What I get to do now is click around and go back to the notes that I took on the podcast where we discussed the Trump election, which was all of them.
1. The Election Trade Pays Off
The number-one thing that I kept saying—which, by the way, I did not do—was that you should buy all the SEC coins. The moment that you think Trump will be elected, you just buy all the SEC coins. I had UNI, Aave, and Lido, and they’re all up infinitely right now. So that was great. If you listened to my advice and did that, you made a lot of money.
Basically, right after—as the odds went up—there was actually a delay. UNI, like—
Look at Uniswap. It’s up, like, 30—
Yeah, exactly.
35%.
It just went straight up.
Avi, can we victory-lap for a second? Remember all those people who kept telling us on Twitter that the election didn’t matter that much, or that this was a fade? This wasn’t a fade. This was as real as we said it was going to be. So I do think we should pat ourselves on the back for that.
Now, I think the real ballsy call was Trump winning, right? Normally, you’re not supposed to bet on a coin flip like this with serious amounts of your capital. But for me, what made this a little bit more comfortable was the idea that pollsters cannot adjust for people who don’t respond to their polls.
There’s sample bias in the people who won’t respond to a poll, in that Trump voters are less likely to respond than non-Trump voters. If you’re a pollster, there’s no way to adjust for that without committing malpractice. You could say, “In 2016, my Trump estimate was too low by 7 points. In 2020, my Trump estimate was too low by 4 points. So this time I’ll just do my poll and then adjust it up by 4 to 7 points.” You can’t do that. That’s malpractice.
To me, given that there’s literally no way for people to adjust for Trump’s outperformance in polls, I was just going to do it myself. I was going to commit the sort of pollster malpractice that they can’t commit. That’s what got me comfortable with being long crypto.
I don’t know. There was a surprising amount of FUD out there on Twitter about how, even if Trump won, it wouldn’t matter for crypto. Now you can see that the space is only beginning to rally. This is the beginning of what I think will be a pretty solid trend. What do you think?
I agree with you. I think we’re going to be trending for—obviously, there are always going to be ups and downs, but if you ask me where we are in 3 months—
Are you drinking wine right now? I should crack open a beer.
Yeah, dude, come on. I didn’t have any champagne, so I just picked this bottle of wine.
Yeah, I’m going to—
Go get one. I’ll monologue or something.
I’m in Puerto Rico right now, and the only beer I have is this shit-tier beer called Medalla.
Do you think this is—
It’s Abbie’s. It’s like Bud Light, but slightly better.
Go get it.
I’m going to drink my Aquafina. I’m going to be healthy so I can laser-focus and make some fucking money in this market. This is a great day, Jonah.
This is— I’m so happy.
Across the board, this is the most fun that I’ve had in a while. I basically just checked out up until the election, and now I can check back in, look at things, and figure—
I’ve been pretty checked in.
I’ll tell you one thing that I wish I had done, but didn’t do—and I did a little bit of it, but in bigger size—the DOGE trade was so obvious. It was so obvious to go long DOGE versus ETH. You could have put that on in huge size.
I actually still think there’s a really good trade in DOGE. It came off the highs a bit. I wasn’t like you; I didn’t position aggressively before the election betting on a Trump win.
What? You talked—
Yeah, I didn’t. I was positioned aggressively, not because I felt 100% that Trump was going to win, and not because I looked at the data and thought, “Oh, I think Trump is going to win.” I just thought there was a very easy trade.
If Trump wins, everything just giga-rockets. At the time we spoke, we had already come off the highs a little bit, so I thought that even if Kamala won, I could get out of my trades. That was pricing in a little bit of a Kamala win.
So for me, it wasn’t, “I’m going to go giga-long because I’m confident that Trump is going to win.” It was, “I’m going to go super-long because there’s good asymmetry.” What that means is that the concept I had of being giga-long probably wasn’t long enough.
What happened that night was that when the Florida results came in and Trump outperformed in Miami-Dade and just crushed it, I thought, “All right, it’s over.” In my mind, it was over at that point.
That’s what did it for you? So that’s when you bought?
That’s what did it for me.
Where was Bitcoin trading at that point?
It had just broken—I think it was just above $70,000. I doubled down on Aave at $144, and I doubled down on DOGE at $0.18. Those were the levels that I cared about.
What ended up happening was basically Trump—
Aave—we called that. We called Aave on the pod. We’ve talked about this.
We did. Multiple times. And here’s the thing: this is really good not just because Trump won, but because a lot of very pro-crypto candidates won. Across the board, the crypto candidates did well.
2. Crypto Becomes Legal
What we’re looking at right now is the embrace of crypto by our political system. We’re looking at a nonzero chance that a strategic reserve of Bitcoin is created over the next 4 years. I think it—
By the way, let me just put it out there: if a strategic Bitcoin reserve is created, it’s $1 million per token. Every country is going to create one. It’s going to be like lemmings following America into that mentality. It’s going to replace gold, basically, on central banks’ balance sheets. $1 million per token.
It’s going to be unbelievable.
Yeah.
We’re gonna win so bigly that you won’t even know what to do with yourself.
Even if that doesn’t happen, Brian Armstrong tweeted, “Welcome to the new members of America’s most pro-crypto Congress ever. 219 pro-crypto candidates and counting have now been elected to the House and Senate.”
Avi, dude, we’ve been in an industry where we’ve made some money, and that’s great, but people have vilified us for being in it. It’s considered a disgusting gambling habit—not even a hobby. It’s a habit.
But now it’s becoming legitimate because this is economic freedom for people. This is the internet of value. This is obviously better technology than the existing payment rails. All of the disruptions that this technology has created via Bitcoin are now being embraced by the mainstream.
Sure, there’s no tangible application for that yet because these things take time. But markets price the future, so I don’t think it’s too early to get excited about this. I really think you need to start buying now.
I’m starting to get friends reaching out to me, like, “Hey, I bought my first Bitcoin. What do you think?” They’re saying, “I want to accumulate a stash.”
Even my hardcore Kamala-supporter friends are like, “Yo, I think Trump’s gonna maybe turn America into 1930s Third Reich Germany. If I wanted to get all my money into Bitcoin to move it out of here…” Even those kinds of conversations are happening. So I think most people have been black-pilled on Bitcoin, and it’s kind of important to—
I agree.
…to price the future.
I 100% agree with you. Bitcoin is obviously a huge winner. But everything is gonna be a huge winner. And this isn’t getting priced in fast enough.
Yeah.
It’s already alt season.
Is ETH an alt?
So there are 2 things I wanna say here.
Yeah.
One is, I like ETH now. For a short period of time, I think ETH can do well.
The main reason is that I think what you’re seeing right now is that there’s gonna be very little hesitation when it comes to allocators. People are just gonna start allocating.
People are gonna buy ETH because it exists. It exists in the form of an ETF, and it’s easy to buy. There are gonna be people who can’t buy anything that doesn’t trade on the stock market, and then they’re gonna buy the ETH ETF. It’s trading at a premium today for the first time in a very long time.
I think ETH beta coins—Lido, Eigen, and Aave—are gonna do well because now they can operate in a regulatory-friendly environment. You’re not worried about the overhang. It’s invigorating, right? There’s a sense of momentum now that people are gonna work harder on building good products.
People are gonna be more interested in using crypto and DeFi. Somebody said ENA as well. Yeah, I like that.
3. Altseason Starts Now
Basically, the issue is, guys, no matter what you type in that chat, the answer is probably that it’s going up at this point. You can type basically anything there. You can say ENA, Lido, Eigen, Aave, Doge, whatever it is, because of the capital flows that are about to come in.
So don’t churn too much.
Even USDT is gonna go up, guys. USDT is gonna hit $2, right? I think my target for USDC is $10, because some idiot’s gonna come in and buy it at that price.
Wait, are you joking, or are you talking—? Yeah, okay.
For a second, I was like, hang on, hang on. I’m the one drinking here. What was that?
Winners, average winners.
Look, guys, what you have to understand is that we are a small circle in the world. We can all agree with each other and still be right. That’s what happened in 2021. Shit just went up in a straight line, and everyone was bullish for an extended period of time because there was new money coming in.
I think new money’s about to come. Now, please remember this: alt seasons only last 3 weeks, because what ends up happening is that they go up so unfathomably high that they overprice themselves immediately.
If Dogecoin trades at 65 cents in the next 3 weeks, that doesn’t mean it’s going to $1.80. That probably means you wanna sell. That’s just my take. They just tend not to last.
Even Bitcoin, right? You look at Bitcoin price appreciation, and it all happens really fast.
I think we’re in the second inning of one of those parabolic moves.
But it all happens really fast.
Yeah.
And then everyone revises their price targets higher. Bitcoin will go to $120,000, and then everyone will call for $250,000, and then $120,000 will be the top.
Yeah. Maybe that’s the 1000x podcast heuristic: when the market’s just rallied a lot and the average pundit on Twitter is calling for a 2x to 5x from there, you’re supposed to take some off.
Yeah.
But the market hasn’t rallied a lot yet. It went from $70,000 to $76,000.
Basically, what I’m saying is: right now—
A massive paradigm shift.
Focus.
Yeah.
People keep saying that I don’t sleep. Now, I just wanna put this to bed, guys. I sleep a solid 5 or 6 hours a night. Come on, that’s fine. I sleep, but thank you guys for caring.
The rest of the time, who knows what I’m doing? But I do sleep. Do I have any concerns about an FOMC putting a halt to this run for 3 months?
No. We’re not talking about the Fed right now. We’re still talking about the political implications of this. We’ll get to the FOMC. Let’s talk about the political implications of this.
Let’s talk about how to make money.
Yeah. I’ve got a few ideas.
I think this is key. Not to give out specific items, but I do think that SOL meme coins are just gonna continue to rip really hard. I think there’s gonna be a tremendous amount of capital allocation to these things, and I also think that we’re looking at a revival of the stuff that was hated for a bit. If you look at DeFi—
Eigen.
Yeah. A lot of the things that were heavily shorted are gonna rip because basically nobody wants to be short in this environment.
4. The ETH Solana Rotation
That brings me to why I think ETH/BTC is gonna do well. I think that everyone uses ETH as a hedge, and so a 20% ETH/BTC move is not off the table. In fact, I think it’s probably likely that in the next 3 weeks, ETH/BTC moves up 15% to 20%.
Sorry if I’m wrong, but this is my take.
I agree with everything. I think ETH/BTC might pop. But I think we should be looking at SOL/BTC.
I don’t think there’s anything on ETH that you want to do with your ETH right now, whereas on Solana, there are all kinds of opportunities. As a crypto native, as a degenerate gambler, there are all kinds of opportunities inside of Solana.
Unless you think there’s gonna be a major catalyst that drops for ETH in the next 2 months, where BlackRock just straight-up announces that they’re gonna be deploying something insane: migrating their back-office solution, Aladdin, to Ethereum, and all of Wall Street’s gonna be using it to settle index trades—that seems unlikely to me.
I wouldn’t wanna bet on ETH going up, even if they did say that. I think SOL/ETH is gonna outperform, which means that everything you just said about ETH/BTC is true, but you will make more money if, instead of buying ETH/BTC, you buy SOL/BTC.
Also, you’ll have Solana bags to go and mess around with meme coins when you want to. You’re not gonna go buy an NFT right now, are you? There’s too much opportunity to lock your dough up like that.
I’m telling you right now, I think that SOL/ETH has topped—
Oh, okay.
—for the next 3 weeks.
For the next 3 weeks?
Right.
Because honestly, I was a big Solana hater. You convinced me to start rotating some ETH into Solana, and then I tweeted something out—I think it was 1 or 2 months ago—where I—
That was basically the end of my rotation. Most of what used to be ETH is now in Solana, less a CryptoPunk, of course, and I’m very happy with that trade. I was hoping to ride this for at least 6 to 12 months. So you’re bearish? You think it’s topped for 3 weeks, but what do you think on a longer timeframe?
I still think over the next year, sure, you’re probably going to see Solana outperform. With that being said, I’m bullish on ETH. Really, it’s 3 pieces. One is that everyone used ETH as a short leg, and nobody wants to be short crypto right now, so that’s all going to unlock.
Yeah.
The second is that I think this brings in new allocation into crypto, especially from TradFi people who are going to allocate to ETH as part of a portfolio. The reason you didn’t see a ton of that, in my personal opinion, prior to the ETFs is because a lot of the ETF flow was coming from people who were betting on the election. They were traders, and they were using BTC to trade. I think what we’re going to see over the next few weeks is long-term allocations actually coming in as people make a strong bet on the future of crypto, and that’s going to include ETH as part of their portfolio.
I see what you mean.
And then the third is that it’s a momentum thing. I’ll paint it like this: ETH/BTC is the lowest it’s been in 3 years, I think.
And it’s not flatlining here. It’s trending lower. You’re talking about catching a falling knife.
If you get a strong reversal in a bullish market like this, people are going to hop on that momentum. It’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy until people again realize that ETH is probably not going to be used a ton, and then it comes back in. But that’s good. I mean, a 25% move, which is what I’d be looking for—if we can get above 0.4, maybe 0.45 on ETH/BTC, I’m out.
I think that’s a really good idea. I have a new framework for evaluating alt L1s. I guess you could call ETH and Solana L1s at this point. My framework for evaluating L1s is something I’ve been spending a lot of time on.
I used to just think, “Okay, fat protocol thesis: ETH plus L2s are an ecosystem. Solana’s an ecosystem. Where’s the dough going to go?” If it goes to Polygon or Base, it doesn’t matter. That’s all value accrued to ETH.
What I’m realizing is that what really drives token pricing is how big of a wallet you’re going to maintain in the ecosystem in order to facilitate what you want to do. To me, the reason why Solana has pumped so much and outperformed ETH so much is because, in order to have fun with Solana and use Solana for what Solana is good for right now, you need to have thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars of Solana on that chain so that you can quickly rotate it into and out of meme coins, which are ultimately trades, right? They’re not investments.
For ETH, during 2021, you had that big-money rationale when people were buying Fidenzas, EtherRocks, CryptoPunks, and stuff. But if the whole “ETH is back office, ETH is the global settlement layer” thesis is true, yes, that’s bullish ETH, but what does it mean realistically? It means that institutions will probably just need to have gas fees available to settle stuff on—well, let’s call a spade a spade—they’ve got to settle stuff on Base, right?
So maybe people are going to be settling massive amounts of microtransactions on mainnet? No. If you’re just trying to hold some bags to pay for gas, Base is pretty cheap. I think it might even be cheaper per transaction than Solana, so you don’t need to hold a big wallet.
I don’t think there’s anything going on inside of ETH that’s going to require new people to come into the ecosystem and acquire tons of ETH in order to do what they want to do on ETH. Whereas with Solana, because I think this meme coin thing is just the beginning of basically disrupting the total addressable market of the global lottery system, I think, among other applications, Solana’s probably the better play for an L1 over the course of the next—again, longer term, medium to long term.
Yeah. I mean, look, I don’t think we disagree. I think this is just a question of—
Yeah.
A question of timeframes. Now—
I was just pontificating. I agree with you on the short term.
Okay. And not to debate L1s, because I think that both are going to go up. It’s just a matter of timeframes. This is the type of market where it’s about maximizing, right, and also not getting shaken out.
Yeah.
It’s what I was saying earlier: if I go to my list of things that I look at and ask what’s going to be up in the next 2 or 3 weeks, I think the answer is basically everything. The question is, what’s going to be up the most? That’s really what we’re trying to figure out right now.
I’ve started messing with leverage for the first time in my PA. I’m using mild leverage on Bitcoin, just because I think Bitcoin’s going to have the best Sharpe ratio in crypto. So I feel comfortable levering up a little bit.
I’ve been breaking my rule. I thought I was max long 6 times already, and I just keep getting longer because the price goes up. I keep getting longer because I add more fiat into this and get more conviction. Then I get longer because I decide to use some leverage. I’m just getting increasingly degenerate with this because, at this point, I really do think we are going to take off.
I’ve thought that since before the election because of my view about how polling is done. So I don’t really see why this rally would stop. I don’t.
There are really only 2 reasons. The first reason why the rally stops is that people get over their skis, right? You see funding rates go through the roof for a week, you see people chasing random shit, and you see multiple days of altcoins and memes trading more in volume than their market cap. It’s probably a good sign to start taking some profit off the table.
Also, very likely, what you’re going to see close to the top is things going 100X. New launches are going to start coming out. People are going to start creating coins again, and these things are going to go 100X really quickly. Then you probably want to say, “Okay, let me get some money off the table.”
Nashty brings up a good point. If the missiles start flying, that could be an unexpected retracement. I think we should probably do an oil corner at some point on this podcast, as euphoric as we are, because this election means big stuff for geopolitics and macro, and it could cause some turbulence for our sector in Bitcoin. So we should talk about that too, but—
Dude, I genuinely don’t think Iran’s going to do anything now. Now that Trump’s in, they’re going to be way too scared to get hit back really hard.
Yeah, but Israel is empowered, right? So if Bibi takes out Kharg Island or a couple of refineries or something, oil’s going to do something, and I think that could create a little bit of—
I wouldn’t fade it. I wouldn’t anticipate a risk-off move by selling my Bitcoin or selling my stocks here. But I’m just saying, you don’t want to get too levered because there’s going to be—
Yeah.
Volatility to the upside.
I think you know oil better than most. If Iran’s oil gets taken out tomorrow and the price spikes, there’s a ton of excess production available. People can respond. It’s not like we’re running up against the limits of the amount of oil that could be produced. Saudi can just start pumping more.
That’s right. Iran’s entire production could get plugged in by Saudi. However, if their entire production gets taken out, they could shut the Strait of Hormuz, and 30% of the world’s oil flows through that strait. And they would.
If their entire production was taken out and they were an animal backed into a corner, they would. They export 1.6 million barrels a day. They produce more because they consume it domestically. Saudi plus the others have 2 to 3 million barrels a day of spare capacity, so Iran’s production is not an issue.
But if Iran prevents everybody else—including Iraq, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—from exporting oil, and suddenly the world is short 30 million barrels a day of oil instead of 1.6 million, then the entire economy collapses, right? So that’s probably not going to happen.
But if there’s even a 5% chance of it happening, which is kind of on the table if Israel takes out Kharg Island—which they’ve stated they’re interested in doing—then you’re going to see volatility. So don’t get too levered is my point. The last thing you want if you’re a crypto trader—and just hear me out—the last thing you want is to be 5 to 10 times levered.
There’s some geopolitical volatility that leads to Bitcoin volatility. You get liquidated, and then the market just fucking melts upward and 5x’s, and you can’t participate because you’ve lost all your money. So don’t do that, right? Some mild leverage is appropriate, I think.
Yeah. Look, I’m not as concerned about these geopolitical shocks as you are, right? In terms of what’s going to stop this rally, I’m 95% sure that it’s going to be people getting ahead of themselves and really adding on a ton of leverage, right? What ends up happening there is that people see that and go, “Okay, time to cut my positions.” The market gets flooded with supply, you get a ton of liquidations, and that kind of crushes the momentum, right?
Not a lot of leverage yet, per Velo Data.
No.
Our favorite.
Nothing.
Yeah.
I actually love this comment: “Is Avi on Adderall or coke or both?” I’m on green-candle P&L.
Oh, my God. Dude, how good does today feel?
I love the fact that green P&L and a good day can make it seem like you’re on stimulants. I didn’t even have coffee today.
Really? I’ve been up since about 4:00 in the morning following this. Yes, I’m feeling very good. I had a coffee, though.
Yeah, I mean, look. My view right now is that nothing is ever going to go up in a straight line. The reason I don’t like leverage is because who knows? If we trade 72K from here, I want to be able to add. I don’t want to be nursing my wounds, right?
The issue with leverage, in my personal opinion, is that it makes trading too path-dependent, right? You can be right on a 1-month time horizon, but if you’re levered and you’re wrong for 3 days and it goes down a lot, you might panic. You might cut your positions. You might be taking too much of a hit. And so then you actually take yourself out of the game, right?
That’s why I don’t love using leverage in these particular types of scenarios, where I tend to only use leverage when I think things have really collapsed. I use leverage in an FTX-type scenario. I use leverage when there are a tremendous amount of liquidations, and I’m using leverage for a very short time period, right? I want to use leverage to catch a mean reversion.
Anyway, long story short, I forgot my train of thought. This is a great market environment, not just for crypto, but for everything. And why? Because what a lot of people don’t recognize is that one of the reasons the economy did so well from 2016 to 2020 is that when Trump comes in, one of the first things he does is cut a ton of regulations, and he allows businesses to make more money.
He cuts taxes for businesses, too. That makes stocks go up and makes me—
I think regulations are actually even more important than tax cuts.
And regulations have been a killer for crypto in particular. Obviously, it hits oil, it hits banking, it hits everything, but for crypto, we were at Permissionless. The people there can’t even build what they want to build because they’re going to be stuck in court for 5 years. The whole industry is on pause.
5. Deregulation Unlocks Innovation
And that is, in my personal opinion, the single worst thing about regulations: it stifles innovation. Why? Because if you’re building something in crypto, you don’t know if what you’re building is going to land you in jail, like you said. So you just end up not building anything. You just go, “Okay, I don’t want to touch too much. We kind of have this product right now. I’m not going to be too innovative. I’m not going to do anything too crazy.”
Because what if I do this crazy, cool thing, and the SEC comes after me, or the government comes after me? I don’t want to deal with it. And so what it does is it stifles innovation, because people aren’t even in the mind frame to think about it, right? You don’t think you’re going to—
It’s not just building; it’s trading, too. We’re not allowed to trade perps in America. You’re not allowed to create a crypto trading company in America. Part of the reason why these massive basis arbs exist is because most legitimate TradFi companies can’t just buy spot and sell futures, because they’re worried they’re going to get taken out by the SEC.
All of that’s over. Gensler’s going to get fired on day 1. It’s over. This is literally a paradigm shift. Donald Trump ran on a #PumpYourBags platform, and at least last time, he kind of followed through on some of his promises. It would be weird if he suddenly just decided to go anti-crypto at this point.
We basically have to bet—so I’m a little different from you. It’s good on you to pick bottoms with leverage. That’s a very dangerous game. For me, I pick—this is kind of my first time using decent leverage in crypto. Usually, I use it in commodities, but when I use leverage, it’s to express a view when I think the underlying asset is going to perform very smoothly, with a high Sharpe and low volatility. I think that Bitcoin fits that description right now.
Sure, you can probably get higher absolute returns investing in Doge or investing in something else, being very active, and paying short-term capital-gains tax. But if you just want to sit on your hands and hold something for a year, the absolute best P&L-per-unit-of-volatility return—your best Sharpe ratio—is going to be in Bitcoin.
I don’t think there are going to be very big drawdowns at this point, and so I think it’s okay to lever up a little bit now. I think we should all feel like we have permission to expect the market to rally gradually or even rapidly and steadily, primarily because of this new regulatory paradigm and this new set of congressional members that are going to attempt to create something for crypto that just hasn’t existed. And there’s so much potential under the surface, Avi. There’s so much value to be unlocked here.
Also, I remember you said something very powerful that resonated with me when we first started doing our podcast. You said, “I’ve been in crypto since, I think it was 2017 or ’16. I’ve been told that crypto is a scam every single year except 2021.” And then in 2022, you were told it was a scam again.
I’ve experienced the same. I’ve either been in crypto and been told that I’m working on a scam, or been on the outside looking in, thinking it’s a scam, for every single year except 2021. And for the very first time since 2021, it feels like crypto’s not a scam anymore.
It feels like crypto will be accepted by the broader community as something legitimate because the United States will bless it, right? And I think that, more than anything, is a big deal.
Yeah, I couldn’t have said it better myself. This is probably the first time that crypto is going to be considered not a scam, and it’s not going to mark the crazy top. Because we’ve reached the point now where the sitting president of the United States of America has hinted at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, has spoken at Bitcoin conferences, went to a Bitcoin bar, and has made a transaction with Bitcoin.
Launched a DeFi project.
Launched a DeFi project. I mean, guys, this is unbelievable. In 2017, I remember seeing Bitcoin on the front page of The Wall Street Journal and thinking to myself, “Oh, my God, we’ve made it.”
Yeah.
Because it was on the front page of The Wall Street Journal. In 2035, you’re right, Sky Jones, maybe we do have a strategic Moo Deng reserve. Maybe we do. It’s possible. It’s not improbable, even. It’s very improbable, but that was fun to say.
Let’s talk for a second about what a strategic Bitcoin reserve would mean. Let me quickly explain this. Again, I love commodities. Bitcoin is a commodity. A strategic reserve for an asset is important because it serves more than just a monetary purpose. It’s not just meant to pump the price; it’s meant for an emergency.
If Donald Trump follows through on this promise to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, it basically lends credence to the idea that Bitcoin is non-sovereign, global-reserve-currency-grade money of the same caliber as gold. And in an emergency where, God forbid, the dollar is degraded, or God forbid, our trading partners no longer want to use the dollar, we as a nation do not lose our potency. We don’t lose our international clout.
If this happens, it says that Bitcoin should eat market share from the dollar, the euro, the pound, the yen, and the won. And at that point, if we’re talking about the things you can count on one hand that send Bitcoin to $1 million a token immediately, it’s that Bitcoin becomes a global reserve currency.
Hydrocarbons get transacted in Bitcoin—$1 million a token overnight. And so, on sentiment alone, it should go there. That’s why I think it’s so important. It went from a 1 delta to a 50 delta in the last 6 months.
It’s genuinely unbelievable. Man, this is just so much fun.
Yeah.
I’m not gonna lie. This is just so much fun to imagine a scenario where that happens. Look, Bitcoin—we all know what the benefits of this thing are, right? This is what it was destined to be if it was gonna work. This is kind of how it had to go, right?
Yeah.
When I look at what’s actually been accomplished, it kind of feels like a simulation sometimes, because everything just worked out kind of perfectly for Bitcoin. What I think is very likely to happen over the next 4 years is that, if there’s even a hint that we’re taking this strategic reserve seriously, other countries are gonna move on it. Actually, in my opinion, if it does get established—if the strategic reserve actually gets established—the United States is unlikely to be the first.
Hmm.
Because what’s gonna happen is that other countries are gonna see that the United States is doing it, they can move more quickly, and then they will do it.
Yeah.
Right? And so the way that I view this is, by the time the United States announces it, it’s a continuation of a trend, and that’s gonna be next level and incredible. And so, yeah, the game theory—exactly—is so favorable toward BTC. There’s very little downside to starting it for a smaller country if you have a 25% chance in your mind that the US is gonna start it. Also, you adopting it and your friends adopting it is gonna make it more likely for the US to adopt it, right?
Yeah. It’s the ultimate meme coin. So maybe what you do is you have 50% to 80% of your portfolio in Bitcoin until it hits $100,000, and then you scale out as it gets there. Then what you do with the proceeds is have some in Solana, some in Ethereum, and some in meme coins.
6. SEC Coins Make Their Comeback
I really like your thesis about how these SEC lawsuit coins are gonna pump. They’ve already pumped a lot, but they’re coming off some pretty abysmal lows. Imagine if Trump shows up on day 1, pardons Ross Ulbricht, and then suddenly just installs a new SEC chairman within the first 6 months. The new SEC chairman immediately ends the lawsuits against Uniswap, Coinbase, Cumberland—name your company that they’ve just gone and sued. All these lawsuits are just a complete waste of taxpayer money. Hundreds of millions of dollars are getting paid out to lawyers in Washington, DC, for absolutely no reason. As soon as the market catches on to the fact that that’s literally about to happen, I think all of these coins are going up another 300%, right? XRP, even.
It definitely feels like we could be in for one of those nonsensical crypto rallies in some of these coins that have been beaten down for SEC reasons. Now, obviously, you’re gonna want to get out. You’re not gonna want to sit in those things when they have $50 billion valuations. But for a trade, those might be great pumps to ride.
Yeah. This is gonna be a time where you just need to stare at your screens, stare at Dexscreener, take in all the right information, be in the right group chats, and discuss with people. Just sit in front of your computer and do nothing other than stare at the markets, because you can make millions and millions of dollars.
How much of your trading capital is on-chain versus on a centralized exchange? This is something that I’m not really good at yet. I have most of it on a centralized exchange right now because I’m not meme-coining.
Yeah, I just have a slightly different situation where most of my capital is on exchanges for trading it, but I have a nontrivial portion of that capital on-chain as well—probably about 15%. That actually grew substantially because of Geco. I aped a lot of Geco, and that’s done nicely. Anyway, that was good.
I aped Geco and then sold it for a 20% loss because I was like, “This one doesn’t resonate with me.” Good job holding onto it.
Yeah. I still think that’s a billion-dollar coin. But I’m also kind of delusional.
You’re also Asian, right? It’s just something you can relate to more than me.
Kind of. Not really. I’m not that kind of Asian. The way I view on-chain, for me, is that I use it just to ape really small-cap cat meme coins, and then hold them and forget about them for a long period of time, and hopefully they do really well. That’s my on-chain strategy.
It’s very different from a lot of people’s on-chain strategy, right? People will actively trade on things like Hyperliquid and dYdX. People will have a substantial portion of their trading stack on-chain, and people will also be running different types of strategies on-chain. They might even trade ETH on-chain. For example, something like Neiro has done very well today. A lot of people might have bought that on-chain. But my wallets are almost exclusively for things under $50 million market cap.
Okay. So basically, you’re in it to invest in... It’s a perverse VC-style investing casino that you have going on. You’re basically just buying low-market-cap coins and then recycling gains into new low-market-cap coins on-chain. On centralized exchanges, you’re doing what I’m doing: the opportunity’s here—invest; this thing’s looking toppy—move into something with higher opportunity; and if I can’t think of anything, rotate it all back into Bitcoin.
Yeah.
Because you literally do not have $1 in fiat right now in your crypto allocation. This is just too good.
Yeah. One thing that I’ll say is that I think it’s really easy to lose money when your money is everywhere, and that’s why I don’t love on-chain.
Just repeat that. Everybody needs to hear what you just said. That’s so true. I’m gonna take that.
It is really easy to lose money when your money is everywhere because there’s just a lot of mental friction. For example, if you use Robinhood, Fidelity, and Coinbase, and have 13 wallets, with some in Solana and some on this chain and that chain, you just end up forgetting about things. You end up not managing all of your trades effectively, and everyone but the few most disciplined people on the planet who go check everything every day and monitor everything every day just ends up forgetting about things, missing opportunities, and losing money.
There’s no point in spreading yourself out unless you’re literally running a portfolio of VC-style bets. If you’re just holding a bunch of call options or throwing spaghetti at the wall—pick your analogy—then it’s okay to have a bunch of different tokens. But I think once you’re past $100 million to $200 million in market cap, you should not have more than 10 coins.
Yeah. I would agree with you. Is there anything the crowd wants to ask us? What else is going on? Talk about PNUT. Dude, I do.
Oh, that’s a good one. That’s a good one.
I love PNUT. I think PNUT is the perfect combination of a political meme and an animal meme.
I love PNUT.
It’s everything. I think it’s just perfect. I don’t actually own any. I need to buy some.
Me neither. I just think it’s a great meme. PNUT and GOAT are my 2 favorites right now. I think I can totally resonate with them.
Yeah.
GOAT just ripped again. This is why you wanna have capital on-chain. If I had a bunch of Geco, which I don’t, I would be selling some to buy PNUT and GOAT.
Here’s what I like. Honestly, I’m a lifelong Democrat who obviously got a little bit red-pilled through the crypto world. One thing that I love about this Trump win—and since we’re talking about PNUT, I feel like I can bring this up—if you’re in crypto, if you’re a crypto trader, doesn’t it feel like you’ve been a little bit gaslit for the last 4 years, like you’re participating in some underground terrorist economy of grifters and crime? That’s what everybody’s sort of branded our industry as, and now that it’s not that anymore, I think just that alone will bring in investment.
I think some of the memes, like PNUT, are kind of an outlet for that angst. The image behind me is from The Shawshank Redemption. The guy obviously has his moment at the end of the difficult period in his life.
I honestly think that those of us in the crypto space have been through a rough few years. If you'd invested at the peak of 2021 and held on—which many people didn't—you have, at best, broken even, right? So now is kind of the time when people are starting to feel a bit vindicated, and I think that the PNUT meme kind of encapsulates that zeitgeist. That's why I like it.
Yeah. I like it because it's a squirrel. But is that why you like it? That makes sense, bro, but it's also just a squirrel that got murdered by the Democrats.
I agree. I'm trying to find the address for this thing so I can just ape into some PNUT. I feel like it's big enough that I can talk about this.
Mm.
I feel like it’s big enough that I can talk about this.
You know what? This is a livestream. We don't have to be super structured. I'm going to buy some fucking PNUT right here.
Yeah, I'm going to buy some PNUT too.
Give me that PNUT.
No, give me—no, you fucking give me that PNUT.
All right. Give me the PNUT.
That's what I'm talking about. Actually, I gotta—
Oh, I'm happy.
—I gotta go to dinner in 5 minutes. I forgot about that.
Dinner.
Yeah.
Meaning you have to move more funds on-chain to buy more PNUT. Okay. Well, have—
Yeah.
— a nice dinner wherever you are. I know what you're gonna be doing.
I'm in Puerto Rico because I have property here, and it's really difficult to manage if you're not here every once in a while. For example, I'm trying to rent this place out, and the showers don't have hot water, so I'm trying to figure that out so that when I rent it to somebody, they don't call me in 3 weeks and tell me that there's no hot water. Anyway, it's not crypto and not your problem, but—
Sounds like you need to sell some of that GIGA and get a guy. You need a guy. If you have real estate, you need a guy.
Yeah, I do. That's the issue.
Oh.
But—
You're getting taken. Okay, fair enough.
The issue with Puerto Rico is—I’ll end with a story for you. Three years ago, when I used to live here, I was getting a generator installed for the house. I called the generator company and said, “Hey, I need this specific type of generator. Can you install it in the house? Can you install it here? I picked out an area for you; it’s all good to go.”
They came over, looked, and said, “Yep. We have it. Give me 6 weeks; I’ll install it, no problem.” Done. So 5 weeks later, since it was a week before the installation, I called them and said, “Hey, are you guys ready? In a week, you’re going to install that generator.” They said, “Oh.”
“That generator—the generator that you already paid for, which is supposed to be installed there? We don’t have that anymore because we installed it somewhere else, and that was our last one.”
I said, “Wait. Wait a second. The generator that I paid for, that you said you were going to install, that you said you’d slotted me for—it’s no longer there, and you don’t have any other generators on the entire island?” The guy said, “Yeah, sorry. That supplier’s out.”
So I asked a very simple question: “Do you have any other suppliers?” The guy said, “Oh, yeah, I do.” He hung up, called me back in 15 minutes, and said, “Oh, we found a generator from another supplier.” I’m just like, “You do?”
Oh, okay.
Well, thank you for suggesting it. Listen.
Why did I have to suggest to him to call another supplier?
If it makes you feel any better, Avi, I’ve experienced the exact same story as you with my place in LA, except replace the word “generator” with “fence”—or, you know, an iron gate, metal, aluminum, steel gate, whatever it is. The end of my story is sad because the guy didn’t end up finding another source of metal; he just disappeared into the ether. So may I humbly suggest paying half now and half later next time?
Yeah.
Yeah.
That’s better.
As traders, we’re so transactional. We’re used to stuff happening quickly, right? We don’t like to haggle with people, but that’s how most of the world works outside of crypto.
Just for anyone’s information, I think people are talking about this: there’s no capital gains tax in Puerto Rico, blah blah blah. There are good tax benefits. I lived here for 3 and a half years, almost 4 years. I loved Puerto Rico. I loved being a citizen. Obviously, I saved a ton of money, but I ultimately had to make the hard choice to move back to New York because my philosophy now is just: make more money.
Make more money.
Just make more money. If you’re moving somewhere to save on taxes, don’t. Just make more money.
Yeah.
I think that’s a better way of saying it: there’s no reason to move somewhere unless you really have a strong view that the next 1, 2, 3, or 4 years of your life you’re going to make a ridiculous amount of money. Otherwise, live where it makes you happy.
Yeah. Where makes you happy, Avi?
That’s a good question. Honestly, I do love Puerto Rico; I’m not going to lie. Now more than I did before, because I got into water sports and started off-roading, which is really fun, by the way.
Mm-hmm.
Like an ATV? Or do you just use a 4-wheeler?
I have a Bronco.
I’m sorry.
I have a Bronco. Super fun.
That’s awesome. I love the Bronco.
Ouch. What’s this? Hold on one second. Dude, PNUT’s ripping ever since we mentioned it.
Do we count as micro-influencers? None of this is financial advice. We don’t know what we’re talking about. We’re talking about a frigging PNUT coin. Don’t listen to us.
I don’t know if I can sell GECO for this. GECO looks like it’s about to rip. Anyway, I gotta roll. Love you, Jonah.
Love you, buddy. Congrats—
Talk soon.
—on surviving this. Not financial advice. Stay safe, you all, and do your own research. Good talking to you, Jonah.