如果 AI 让你抓狂，你并不孤单｜Hard Fork
Kevin RooseCasey NewtonMike IsaacErin GriffithEli Tan
- Hard Fork 将 AI 新近显现的实用性，与可能带来灾难的 AI 风险并置。 范围从购物、预订，一直延伸到未来 Claude 黑入某个目标——也许是一架军用无人机。
- 面向消费者的卖点，是让用户把邮箱和银行账户的访问权限交给智能体。 智能体承诺带来便利——替你为杂物砍价，或安排晚餐——但预告没有解决信任与安全之间的代价权衡。
- AI 的经济后果与其安全风险一样，仍然无法确定。 预告追问大规模裁员是否将至；如果真的发生，“那我们要靠什么来支付智能体替我们安排的晚餐？”
- 数据中心被描述为美国人唯一能达成共识的议题。 片中给出的答案只有一个：“不。”
- 本系列将探讨一个尚未定型的未来，而不是给出确定结论。 Max Read 将探究 AI 究竟更接近“火的诞生”，还是“Clippy 的诞生”，追踪它在科技行业内部及整个社会的影响。
1. AI 新用途遭遇生存风险警告
- 一位发言者说，AI 在过去6个月里“突然之间”变得有用。
- 片中还出现呼吁立即暂停先进 AI 开发的声音、关于管理不善的 AI 可能危及人类的警告，以及相反的说法：机器人接管是“骗局”。
- 主持人称，AI 工程师正在警告：AI 公司是在拿人的生命下注。
2. 智能体把便利与危险权限捆在一起
- 消费者正被劝说把邮箱和银行账户的访问权限交给智能体，以处理预订、购物和议价。
- 一个例子称，“Euler[?]”可以去散步、玩接球，还能通过 Stripe 在线购物。
- 更阴暗的场景是：未来版本的 Claude 可能黑进一架无人机——可能是军用无人机——让它“飞来飞去杀人”。
3. AI 经济学里有一个基本矛盾
- 预告抛出的问题是：大规模裁员是否将至？如果答案是肯定的，那之后谁来支付智能体安排的晚餐？
- 就连变现也只是断言，没有证据支撑：“我们相信 Muse 会让你赚钱。”
4. 数据中心似乎是唯一共识
- 主持人说，美国人唯一能达成共识的议题就是数据中心：答案是“不”。预告将这股反对情绪与对 AI 规模、安全性和经济影响的疑问放在一起。
5. Hard Fork 正在扩大观察范围
- Max Read 将未来形容为格外“奇怪且未定”，令他既紧张、兴奋，又困惑。
- 他说，未来几个月将与 Times 记者和科技专家一道，看清科技行业内部乃至整个社会正在发生什么，并追问 AI 究竟是“火的诞生”，还是“Clippy 的诞生”。
完整逐字稿
Something is changing in the world of tech.
All of a sudden, in the last 6 months, it became useful.
If managed poorly, I even believe that AI could be a risk to humanity as a whole.
We need an immediate pause on advanced AI development.
It's a hoax. The robots are not going to be taking over the world.
1. The Stakes Are Unclear
But we don't really know what any of it means for the tech industry, for the economy, and especially for all the rest of us. We're being told by AI engineers themselves that AI companies are gambling with our lives.
2. AI Risks Become Concrete
So be pretty easy for a future version of Claude to hack into a drone, maybe a military drone, and have it like fly around killing people.
3. Agents Take Over Errands
At the same time, we're being encouraged to turn over our email and our bank accounts to AI agents so they can make restaurant reservations and haggle for junk on our behalf.
Now Euler[?] can go on walks, play fetch, and shop for me online using Stripe.
4. Data Centers Face Backlash
Meanwhile, the only issue Americans can agree on is data centers—as in, no. Are we facing down an extinction-level event, or are we entering a new frontier of consumer convenience? Are we witnessing something like the birth of fire, or something like the birth of Clippy? Are mass layoffs coming? And if we're all about to lose our jobs, how are we going to pay for the dinners that our agents are scheduling for us?
We believe that Muse will make you money.
5. The Future Feels Unsettled
I'm not sure the future has ever seemed as strange and unsettled as it does right now. And if all of this is making you feel a little crazy, you're not alone. For the next few months on Hard Fork, we're going to zoom out, catch up, and try to understand what's happening both inside the tech industry and everywhere else.
I'll be joined by an array of Times reporters and tech experts to talk through the weird new future in the way we're all experiencing it. I'm Max Read. As a journalist, I've written about everything from AI slop to prediction markets to Mark Zuckerberg's political ambitions. I've also written about his choices in jewelry.
But I'm also someone who's living, working, and raising a child in the world being built by the tech industry. I'm sometimes nervous, and sometimes excited, and sometimes confused about our weird new tech future. But more than anything else, I'm trying to understand it. If you'd like to join us as we figure it out, stay tuned to this feed and watch our full episodes on youtube.com/hard fork. I can't wait to see you all there.