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Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s failure to clear $80K has Jonah turning short-term bearish, with a “quite high” probability of falling below $70K.Stocks migrating onchain through Lighter and Hyperliquid could leave Nasdaq behind, while $LAPTOP’s fall from $1.5B to about $630M highlights political-token extraction risk.

Avi Felman × Se

Crypto is rallying on debasement, social trading, and RWA theses, while FOMO’s on-chain HOOD trade suggests attention can precede revenue recognition.FOMO’s 5–10% daily growth and $4 million creator payouts support an organic network thesis, but 94.4% of users lost money and scale remains unproven; monitor Bitcoin’s six-month-to-one-year catalyst and whether meme markets get solved.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

MemeFi is rotating between stories rather than attracting a broad 2020–November 2021-style wave, while Robinhood Chain’s weekly volume rose from $500M to $1.5B.Jonah says value may accrue to FOMO, exchanges, Vlad Tenev, or underlying protocols rather than ordinary traders, leaving sub-1% sizing, multi-cycle durability, frontier-model productivity, and Iran’s Hormuz leverage as risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Jordi Alexander

Retail has largely exited crypto altcoins as unlock-driven selling pushes flows toward equities, sports betting, and prediction markets, while Selini trades SpaceX across crypto venues and hedges in tradfi.Predictable passive rebalancing and crypto-native funding markets create opportunity, but October 10 showed how leverage and non-dollar collateral can turn rare volatility into permanent losses.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil’s fall from above $100 to the 80s, with energy accounting for 35-40% of recent CPI growth, gives Warsh room to avoid a disastrous pivot; Jonah’s closing call is that rate cuts are not dead.Markets barely sold off through full-blown war and a closed Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the flows-over-fundamentals regime, while SpaceX’s 4% float makes its August/September unlocks a key risk window.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi sees Bitcoin’s failed breakdown and move above 74 as evidence that sellers are exhausted, with 69 as the failed-breakout risk level and 85 as the near-term target.The Iran shock may create a wall of worry rather than lasting contagion, while Hyperliquid’s weekend access and Sky’s buybacks offer differentiated stablecoin exposure as Circle faces high valuation and falling-yield risk.

Avi Felman × Flood

Flood remains bullish on Bitcoin as debt and deficits make debasement “an inevitability,” while arguing that value is concentrating in stores of value, permissionless trading, and stablecoins.Perps could dominate options as Binance data shows over 92% of derivatives users trade them; HYPE, HOOD, app-level aggregation, and quantum risk are the main adoption catalysts and unresolved risks.

Jason Yanowitz × Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Crypto’s cycle debate turns bullish as ETF buyers dilute four-year-cycle reflexes, while OG and 2017-era holders sell into demand that is still absorbing supply.Avi frames volatility-driven Bitcoin weakness as an opportunity and favors fee-generating infrastructure, while prediction-market pricing and year-end tax-loss flows offer catalysts with execution risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin recovered two months of de-risking in one week, and the BTC-gold ratio near 32 points toward roughly $156K if it mean-reverts to 40 with gold flat, or $160K-$170K plus if gold keeps rising.Retail-led flows, Zcash’s doubling, and Galaxy’s $14.85B market cap versus Coinbase’s $98.65B reinforce a speculative risk-on regime; the proposed expression is outright Bitcoin calls or a 1x1 spread, with volatility and forced-selling risk to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

An $8–9B Galaxy Bitcoin block was absorbed without a crisis, while crypto treasury companies have raised about $90B and public markets are paying $2 of equity value for every $1 of crypto.Covenants forcing sales after roughly a 30% Bitcoin decline could turn today’s $25–28B ex-MSTR exposure into cascading supply at $50–75B, making premium to NAV the key signal to monitor.