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Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s failure to clear $80K has Jonah turning short-term bearish, with a “quite high” probability of falling below $70K.Stocks migrating onchain through Lighter and Hyperliquid could leave Nasdaq behind, while $LAPTOP’s fall from $1.5B to about $630M highlights political-token extraction risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

MemeFi is rotating between stories rather than attracting a broad 2020–November 2021-style wave, while Robinhood Chain’s weekly volume rose from $500M to $1.5B.Jonah says value may accrue to FOMO, exchanges, Vlad Tenev, or underlying protocols rather than ordinary traders, leaving sub-1% sizing, multi-cycle durability, frontier-model productivity, and Iran’s Hormuz leverage as risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil’s fall from above $100 to the 80s, with energy accounting for 35-40% of recent CPI growth, gives Warsh room to avoid a disastrous pivot; Jonah’s closing call is that rate cuts are not dead.Markets barely sold off through full-blown war and a closed Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the flows-over-fundamentals regime, while SpaceX’s 4% float makes its August/September unlocks a key risk window.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi sees Bitcoin’s failed breakdown and move above 74 as evidence that sellers are exhausted, with 69 as the failed-breakout risk level and 85 as the near-term target.The Iran shock may create a wall of worry rather than lasting contagion, while Hyperliquid’s weekend access and Sky’s buybacks offer differentiated stablecoin exposure as Circle faces high valuation and falling-yield risk.

Avi Felman × Flood

Flood remains bullish on Bitcoin as debt and deficits make debasement “an inevitability,” while arguing that value is concentrating in stores of value, permissionless trading, and stablecoins.Perps could dominate options as Binance data shows over 92% of derivatives users trade them; HYPE, HOOD, app-level aggregation, and quantum risk are the main adoption catalysts and unresolved risks.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Robinhood’s stock tokens, own L2, perps, and staking could make it a direct challenger to Coinbase and Hyperliquid, after its shares rose from $25 to $100.Avi’s stated trade expression favors Robinhood and Bitcoin over L1s and L2s, while tokenized equities could unlock on-chain lending and arbitrage; adoption and late-’26/’27 political risk remain key watchpoints.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s 112-to-104 pullback looks like leverage unwinding, with lower highs and open interest—not funding rates—offering the sharper risk gauge.An additional 10,000–13,000 coins of OI unwinding near 97 is Avi’s condition before buying heavily into altcoins, while US perp legalization could expand Hyperliquid’s market.TradFi integrations could catalyze Syrup if TVL keeps growing, but geopolitical flows and a possible Bitcoin floor near 97 keep the timing unresolved.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

About $3B in weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows appear to be real spot demand: CME open interest rose only $1B while Binance BTC OI fell.MSTR copycats add bullish flow but create liquidation risk, as new SPVs lack Saylor’s non-recourse protection if Bitcoin drops 30–40%.Watch premium-to-book, liquidation levels, and whether cash-flowing DeFi and RWAs develop into the next durable growth trade.

Jonah Van Bourg × Avi Felman

Bitcoin’s slide into the $90K-$93.5K area looks to Avi Felman like a year-end liquidity washout after Michael Saylor’s $106K-average bid disappeared during blackout, not a broken cycle.With BTC down roughly 3% while some alts fell 15%-20%, selling may be largely washed out, supporting an alt-led Q1 rebound and ETH/BTC above 0.04 within weeks, while Bitcoin still needs confirmation and reserve optionality remains a catalyst.