$GRAIL: Long Camelot on Robinhood Integration with Arbitrum
Executive Summary
With Robinhood's groundbreaking announcement to issue token-based stocks for European users via Arbitrum(1), the optimal strategy to capture the resulting surge in Arbitrum activity is taking a long position in Camelot DEX's $GRAIL token. This represents a pure beta play for exposure to increased Arbitrum ecosystem activity through a token fundamentally tied to the chain's success as the dominant native DEX (excluding Uniswap) with deep ecosystem integrations.
We anticipate a significant rerating of this name in the near term (1 - 2 months) as the market recognizes and more fully appreciates the catalyst. While this has already started today as $GRAIL is up ~75% in the past 2 days, this catalyst has legs: with Robinhood processing $142.9B monthly in equities volume alone(2), even partial migration of this volume to on-chain infrastructure could represent an order-of-magnitude increase in Arbitrum financial activity.
Camelot DEX Overview
Launched 2.5 years ago shortly after the FTX collapse, Camelot is a sophisticated AMM-based DEX platform with many advanced features. Camelot rapidly ascended to become Arbitrum's largest DEX for ecosystem tokens, surpassing Solidly forks, Trader Joe, and eventually Uniswap. The platform reached its all-time high of $4,643 in March 2023 with an FDV of $464.3M and daily volumes exceeding $20M.
Camelot operates as an AMM with concentrated liquidity featuring a dual token model where fees accrue to the staked version ($xGRAIL) of the primary governance token. $xGRAIL is non-transferable and offers enhanced rewards and voting powers. One of Camelot’s defining traits is in providing adjustable swap fees based on market conditions and protocols' specifics.This flexibility means Camelot partners have the freedom to incentivize every pair as they see fit and to optimize their DEX experience for users(3). In sum, Camelot’s many innovative protocol-friendly and user-friendly features demonstrate the platform's commitment to deep ecosystem integration, meaning Camelot serves as an accurate proxy for Arbitrum's growth trajectory with a strong and straightforward value accrual system.
Why Does this Opportunity Exist?
Camelot has primarily been a victim of market neglect. Arbitrum has lost significant mindshare over the past year despite consistently ranking 5th for DEX volume with $17.79B in the past 30 days (compared to $28.1B for Base). Most market participants have written off Arbitrum despite it hosting of DeFi's strongest applications like GMX, as attention shifted to Base, Solana, and other chains. However, $GRAIL has undergone a multi-year consolidation period, declining in correlation with $ARB, creating a compressed valuation setup primed for expansion. Finally, unlike virtually every other Arbitrum project that has expanded multi-chain, Camelot has remained focused exclusively on becoming embedded within the Arbitrum ecosystem, expanding to most Orbit chains while receiving backing from Offchain Labs and the Arbitrum Foundation.
Competitive Positioning & Market Dynamics
While Uniswap dominates Arbitrum DEX volumes with >50% market share, no exchange is better positioned for reflexive upside than Camelot. As the primary native DEX with deep ecosystem partnerships and exclusive Arbitrum focus, Camelot represents the purest play on increased trading activity. This is clearly already playing out - today alone $GRAIL has increased over 100% with trading volumes exceeding $1.5M, demonstrating immediate market recognition of the opportunity.
Valuation Framework
$GRAIL is a strong cash-flowing machine, having generated $4m in annualized fees, ~$877k in annualized revenue, and ~$750k in holder revenue accruing back to $xGRAIL - this is despite the low level of activity on Arbitrum in the trailing 12 months. This provides decent downside protection to the name even despite the down-only price action in the last few years. Realistically, it is hard to see the token price going much lower than where it bounced off of recent lows near ~$270.
In any case, we think it is more relevant to consider the call-option nature of this trade, where 1) $GRAIL is entering price discovery and 2) it is hard to quantify the value Robinhood’s announcement will bring to Arbitrum and ultimately to $GRAIL - which plays to $GRAIL’s advantage in the short term as there is little to anchor the price to and a considerable price ceiling historically to reach for.
In our view, if Robinhood moves fully onchain and even a fraction of this volume (say, 5%) runs through Camelot for one reason or another, we could see Camelot re-rate considerably. At 5% of Robinhood 30-day volumes as cited above (~$145B), you have ~$7.25B of volume pushed through Camelot, or ~6x the trailing 30 day volumes today. Assuming Camelot’s fees on total DEX volume aligns with historical averages around ~0.33%, and revenue capture relative to those fees remains similar to recent figures (~20%) this translates to ~$4.78m in annualized fees. At a ~$10M market cap, any meaningful volume arrival - and even speculation of such - could result in material valuation changes and a “melt-up” scenario.
Risk Considerations
From our perspective, there are three main risks - the primary being that Robinhood’s presence actually does little to increase DEX volume on Arbitrum. However, the announced commitment provides strong directional conviction towards Arbitrum. Large companies like Robinhood move slowly, and this setup provides Arbitrum a fresh shot and reasonable timeline to parlay this opportunity to reignite growth in their ecosystem.
Secondarily, Uniswap's dominant market share best positions it to capture significant volume flows from renewed Arbitrum interest. However, the mitigant to this concern is that few token investors will long $UNI tokens on this news given their value accrual system split between token and equity. $GRAIL is a superior pure-play option.
Finally, there is broader market risk. Broader crypto volatility that seems to be the trend so far in 2025 could impact timing and magnitude of the anticipated rerating. The mitigant here is the fact that this a shorter-term trade, and is really a matter of early conviction ahead of a potential inflection as the market appreciates $GRAIL’s redemption arc.
Conclusion
Following Robinhood's tokenized stock platform announcements and the attention and increased usage of Arbitrum we expect it to bring, $GRAIL offers a pure-play bet on Arbitrum's reinvigoration. At current valuations, with strong historical price precedent and a clear catalyst, we are long with plans to sell closer to the deployment of the Robinhood chain, which should not arrive for at least several months, giving speculators ample time to build a position and for price discovery to occur.
Sources:
1 )https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/06/30/robinhood-tokenized-stocks-arbitrum-blockchain-l2-europe/
3) https://docs.camelot.exchange/protocol/amm-v2/dynamic-directional-fees
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. The author may hold positions in the mentioned assets. Cryptocurrency investments involve substantial risk and may result in complete loss of capital.
Affiliate Disclosures
- •The author and/or others the author advises do not currently hold, or plan to initiate, an investment position in target.
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- •The author is not being compensated in any form by target in relation to this research.
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