Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Jeremy Giffon

Giffon argues that capital follows the “billion-dollar PDF”: in long-dated private markets, narrative is the great filter, while X’s unifeed increasingly selects the stories that move marginal security prices.AI shifts software economics from near-zero-cost strings to recurring compute, implying lower margins and greater scale; Giffon has largely sat out the jump ball, while LPs should underwrite manager incentives and the increasingly extractive SPV structure.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Ben Horowitz

Ben Horowitz expects AI’s economic impact within 12–24 months because adoption needs no new infrastructure, while lower energy prices, less regulation, and a friendlier tax code strengthen the backdrop.AI-native companies such as Cursor can reach over $1B in revenue rapidly even as Salesforce and SAP remain difficult targets, but policy remains the tail risk and private markets must support companies toward a roughly $1B IPO threshold.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Peter Lacaillade

Private markets delivered 3-5% alpha over public equities for 25 years, while persistent top-manager performance can add 5%+.SCS underwrites 16-18% net IRR and 2.5x through pooled vehicles, targeting lower-middle-market businesses bought at 5-8x EBITDA and sold at 12-18x after operational growth.The retail wave bears watching: interval funds bid mid-90s versus sophisticated buyers at mid-80s, while quarterly liquidity may still mean being locked up for five, six years.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Ramtin Naimi

Abstract’s thesis is that multi-stage firms historically led most power-law seed rounds, while Naimi’s concentrated 5% from a $100M fund can exceed 15% from a $1.5B co-lead in look-through exposure.His sole-node Series A process claims highest-decile valuations and lowest dilution, but 4–5x markups and 30–40% IRR within months echo 2021, while AI application valuations remain undetermined.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Alan Waxman

Alan Waxman’s edge is unitizing risk by business quality, capital-structure attachment point, and documents, letting Sixth Street compare disparate deals across asset classes.With 450-500 monthly deals, 15-25 live themes, and a $30B TAL vehicle, the firm can migrate as themes decay over 12 to 36 months, but leverage-driven returns, AI labor disruption, and wealth-channel structure remain watchpoints.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Bill Gurley

Venture’s private-company backlog reflects roughly 1,000 firms raising more than $1 billion each, while mega-funds and paper marks weaken incentives to reset valuations.With IPOs closed, holding periods stretching toward 10-to-15 years, and annual dilution of 3%-6%, LP liquidity pressure and a potential reset remain the key catalysts.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Will Thorndike × Kevin Taweel × Irv Grousbeck

Asurion turned a 1995 Road Rescue buyout at roughly 4.5–5 times EBITDA into more than 5,275X MOIC, combining recurring revenue, rapid wireless-market growth, disciplined talent allocation, and a power ratio above 10X.Merrimac’s handset-insurance acquisition and vertical integration transformed unit economics, while buybacks amplified per-share compounding; Lock/Line synergies and the 2007 recapitalization created further value, alongside governance friction from competing sponsor agendas.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × John Zito

Apollo’s differentiated model combines third-party asset management with principal capital, using Athene’s more than $300 billion balance sheet and long-duration liabilities to finance infrastructure, compute, defense, and bespoke investment-grade credit.The opportunity expands if public and private assets become more liquid, but 6%-7% leverage costs challenge zero-rate-era return promises, making origination scale, precise credit boxes, and evergreen compounding key variables.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Graham Weaver

Alpine targets overlooked, labor-intensive succession deals rather than polished auctions, replacing management in 100% of recent platforms and roughly 80% of add-ons with young operators, coaches, and standardized systems.That execution model underpins a 5x net-MOIC ambition while underwriting individual deals near 3x net without multiple expansion, but rising rates, 5,500 funds, and weaker fundraising make duration and differentiation increasingly important.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Graham Duncan

Exceptional partnerships collapse principal-agent distance: Stuart Miller’s trust gave Graham Duncan’s partnership a $50 million mandate and room to expand.Duncan seeks quiet-egoed managers who create more value than they capture, and seeds only firms he would back without seed economics.Mispriced talent can emerge from institutional constraints, but source ownership, principal fit, and adversity remain diligence risks.