Jonah Van Bourg

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s 25% rally toward $80K reflects a shift from AI productivity to Treasury and Fed-driven debasement, after equity vol cooled and Bessent deployed capital to defend yields.Avi sees a reasonable chance of $95K-$100K within six weeks and substantial ZCAF flows, with $15.5M in day-one volume comparable to BSOL as a percentage of market cap.The key risk is that this remains an early-innings lockout rally rather than a new bull trend, while NVDA’s crowded short positioning creates a potential one-to-two-day rebound catalyst into earnings.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The yen intervention may be a Treasury backstop designed to prevent Japanese reserve sales from pushing U.S. yields higher, reinforcing a policy regime where Washington’s favored assets and lower rates shape positioning.Avi sees metals rotating as central-bank selling reverses, while Jonah prefers copper’s supply bottleneck and direct exposure; crypto remains resilient, but HOOD offers a higher-margin expression and political risk could redefine the rally.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund was margin-called after 4x leverage created roughly $120 billion of memory exposure, showing how public weakness can turn a sound AI thesis into a path-dependent liquidation.Both hosts are buying the dip, citing 40%-50% memory undersupply over the next 12 months.Watch whether the vanished $25 billion July bid delays recovery for 2, 3, or 5 weeks.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Only 2.2% of US households pay for AI subscriptions, leaving a large adoption runway that could flow to Micron, MSFT, Meta and Google.A 40% memory drawdown has not ended Avi’s thesis, but Korean margin calls show bubble-like leverage, making forced selling and earnings misses the risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi sees the hyperscaler-to-memory melt-up becoming fully priced, prompting a rotation toward indexes and AI downstream beneficiaries such as ARKG and Reddit.Jonah still sees fundamental support in Micron at 7.5x forward earnings, while both debate dollar strength, Bitcoin’s 1-2 year outlook, and whether rising volatility demands smaller Intel positions.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Hyperscalers’ $600–700B data-center spending has largely been priced in, and cracks are shifting attention from AI demand to what AI changes across the real economy.Avi favors short Accenture and long XBI/ARKG while warning that volatile memory proxies are not the same as buying suppliers’ products; Micron earnings and biotech’s 50% drawdown test remain key risks.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

HP and Dell’s catchup rally alongside weaker Mag 7 leaders may signal a late-cycle shift into derivative trades, though Avi points to surging physical DDR4 demand as evidence against a bubble.The IBIT/MSTR pair trade, upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic supply, and Iran’s $200-crude downside scenario frame catalysts and risks for a concentrated, high-cash approach.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The next Fed meeting’s 5% tail flipped from a cut to a hike as PPI rose 1.4% MoM versus 0.5% expected and oil stayed above $100 with Hormuz closed.Avi moved to 30% cash targeting 50%, while Jonah trimmed 7%; memory remains a demand-driven bottleneck, but inflation and capital withdrawal from OpenAI and Anthropic are the risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The rally is framed as a lockout: bears sold the Iran-war dip, missed the rebound, and now face all-time highs, while AI, energy, and crypto fundamentals still lead perception.Monitor inflation toward 4%, top-10% consumer spending, overinvestment, and the first earnings miss; Korea’s doubled margin loans and memory undersupply add catalysts and froth risk.