Jonah Van Bourg

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s failure to clear $80K has Jonah turning short-term bearish, with a “quite high” probability of falling below $70K.Stocks migrating onchain through Lighter and Hyperliquid could leave Nasdaq behind, while $LAPTOP’s fall from $1.5B to about $630M highlights political-token extraction risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

MemeFi is rotating between stories rather than attracting a broad 2020–November 2021-style wave, while Robinhood Chain’s weekly volume rose from $500M to $1.5B.Jonah says value may accrue to FOMO, exchanges, Vlad Tenev, or underlying protocols rather than ordinary traders, leaving sub-1% sizing, multi-cycle durability, frontier-model productivity, and Iran’s Hormuz leverage as risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Jordi Alexander

Retail has largely exited crypto altcoins as unlock-driven selling pushes flows toward equities, sports betting, and prediction markets, while Selini trades SpaceX across crypto venues and hedges in tradfi.Predictable passive rebalancing and crypto-native funding markets create opportunity, but October 10 showed how leverage and non-dollar collateral can turn rare volatility into permanent losses.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil’s fall from above $100 to the 80s, with energy accounting for 35-40% of recent CPI growth, gives Warsh room to avoid a disastrous pivot; Jonah’s closing call is that rate cuts are not dead.Markets barely sold off through full-blown war and a closed Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the flows-over-fundamentals regime, while SpaceX’s 4% float makes its August/September unlocks a key risk window.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi sees Bitcoin’s failed breakdown and move above 74 as evidence that sellers are exhausted, with 69 as the failed-breakout risk level and 85 as the near-term target.The Iran shock may create a wall of worry rather than lasting contagion, while Hyperliquid’s weekend access and Sky’s buybacks offer differentiated stablecoin exposure as Circle faces high valuation and falling-yield risk.

Jason Yanowitz × Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Crypto’s cycle debate turns bullish as ETF buyers dilute four-year-cycle reflexes, while OG and 2017-era holders sell into demand that is still absorbing supply.Avi frames volatility-driven Bitcoin weakness as an opportunity and favors fee-generating infrastructure, while prediction-market pricing and year-end tax-loss flows offer catalysts with execution risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin recovered two months of de-risking in one week, and the BTC-gold ratio near 32 points toward roughly $156K if it mean-reverts to 40 with gold flat, or $160K-$170K plus if gold keeps rising.Retail-led flows, Zcash’s doubling, and Galaxy’s $14.85B market cap versus Coinbase’s $98.65B reinforce a speculative risk-on regime; the proposed expression is outright Bitcoin calls or a 1x1 spread, with volatility and forced-selling risk to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

An $8–9B Galaxy Bitcoin block was absorbed without a crisis, while crypto treasury companies have raised about $90B and public markets are paying $2 of equity value for every $1 of crypto.Covenants forcing sales after roughly a 30% Bitcoin decline could turn today’s $25–28B ex-MSTR exposure into cascading supply at $50–75B, making premium to NAV the key signal to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Robinhood’s stock tokens, own L2, perps, and staking could make it a direct challenger to Coinbase and Hyperliquid, after its shares rose from $25 to $100.Avi’s stated trade expression favors Robinhood and Bitcoin over L1s and L2s, while tokenized equities could unlock on-chain lending and arbitrage; adoption and late-’26/’27 political risk remain key watchpoints.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Brent’s fall from 81.37 to 74.21 despite missiles signals that Hormuz—not headlines—is the key geopolitical variable, while oil’s “escalator up, elevator down” pattern can lead crypto and equities.Jonah’s 102K–110K Bitcoin range, ETH/BTC short and Circle-versus-Coinbase pair trade frame a market where euphoria, rate exposure and treasury-shell contagion remain the catalysts to monitor.