Erik Torenberg

Erik Torenberg × Benedict Evans

Agentic coding has crossed unmistakable product-market fit, with customers pulling products from vendors’ hands.Foundation models appear headed toward commodity economics absent durable differentiation, while today’s token scarcity meets $1 trillion–$2 trillion of capex and “100x, 200x” efficiency gains.Cheaper development should create more software, but the unresolved question is which SaaS incumbents survive and whether models capture infrastructure-like returns.

Alex Rampell × Erik Torenberg × Mike Cannon-Brookes

AI is repricing SaaS before proving universal impairment, with Zendesk-like seat models exposed to agent substitution while Workday’s employee-based pricing and Adobe’s middle position may be underappreciated.Atlassian’s three great quarters, accumulated process knowledge, Teamwork Graph and extensibility strategy could make core systems stickier, but value depends on fair pricing and product design that earns trust as agents enter workflows.

Benedict Evans × Erik Torenberg

Generative AI may match the internet or smartphones in scale, but uneven adoption—ChatGPT’s 800 or 900 million weekly users with only about 5% paying—makes workflow integration, not model novelty, the central commercial test.Specialized products that encode validation and institutional knowledge may capture value above increasingly comparable models, while OpenAI’s distribution remains a fragile moat and falling compute costs, overbuilding and uncertain capability keep the bubble’s timing and infrastructure demand unresolved.